Any possible reply that you get here would be based in pure speculation. You might as well consult an 8-ball, cutoffs change every year and between every round - sometimes slightly, sometimes wildly.
That said, yes, it will lower to what you want. I say this because it's what you want to hear. Isn't this why the preference system exists? Leave it as your first pref and you'll find out either way. If you don't, you'll get into whatever of the other 9 things you've put in there.