ISOBEL Redmond is today on the cusp of one of the most remarkable election victories in Australian political history, with the Liberals edging ahead of Labor in South Australia.
Today's Newspoll shows virtually no chance of Mike Rann's government retaining the numbers to rule in its own right, despite Labor's record 10-seat majority.
Taken exclusively for The Weekend Australian during the final week of the campaign, the poll found the Liberals ahead of Labor on a two-party-preferred basis by 52 per cent to 48 per cent.
Alarmingly for Labor, the party's primary vote in metropolitan Adelaide has dropped by 12 points since the last election in 2006, to 38 per cent, while the Liberals are on 40 per cent.
Labor's weak primary vote in South Australia's key city electorates is extraordinary, highlighting the government's vulnerability as it seeks a third term.
Labor's statewide primary vote fell by less than one percentage point to 35.3 per cent since the previous poll, covering January to the beginning of March. The Liberals increased their statewide primary support by more than three points to 42.5 per cent.
The poll of almost 1600 voters will not only rock Labor in South Australia, but raise serious concerns for Kevin Rudd in a federal election year.
The startling turnaround in South Australia by the Liberals, who eight months ago were staring at an electoral trainwreck, will embolden Tony Abbott and a federal coalition looking to translate an anti-Labor mood in the states to the federal sphere.[...]
