Speculations (1 Viewer)

[Deathless]

Come one, come all...

Anyone want to use their epic skills to predict the economic future?

E.g. AUD rise, USD drop - AUD will rise to $0.90 in 2 months due to .... etc

It'll be awesome if you get it spot on, and then reflect that if you had purchased a certain currency/share you might have made a few dollars...

 

[FutureSight01]

I think the AUD will stay around 0.80-0.85 for a while, discounting mad rushes etc. Since Greece is going to be aided by the EU, there's less risk involved for the world, and China is going well. However, Italy, Portugal and Spain may prove to be a little risky. This may give us a capital rush, but I don't think so. If I were to invest, my money would be staying right here until there was a capital flight. Then I'd invest in USD, with some going to Euros as well. The AUD will stay relatively high cause of our crazy interest rates mostly. Also, any massive depreciation will be relatively quickly countered by the really cheap Rio and BHP shares etc In the medium term, what CAN undermine this is the ability of Governments to pay off debt. If another debt crisis ensues due to govts (not just our own, though it's definitely a concern), we're pretty well screwed.

 

[thongetsu]

I think the Aus dollar will be at .92 US cents in 1 month. just guessing.

 

[Deathless]

I think the AUD will stay around 0.80-0.85 for a while, discounting mad rushes etc. Since Greece is going to be aided by the EU, there's less risk involved for the world, and China is going well. However, Italy, Portugal and Spain may prove to be a little risky. This may give us a capital rush, but I don't think so. If I were to invest, my money would be staying right here until there was a capital flight. Then I'd invest in USD, with some going to Euros as well. The AUD will stay relatively high cause of our crazy interest rates mostly. Also, any massive depreciation will be relatively quickly countered by the really cheap Rio and BHP shares etc In the medium term, what CAN undermine this is the ability of Governments to pay off debt. If another debt crisis ensues due to govts (not just our own, though it's definitely a concern), we're pretty well screwed.

Our CAD is considered meagre in comparison to Greece and Spain. Isn't our CAD (according to textbook), a "consenting adults deficit" (Pitchford). So basically our debts lay in the private sector of the Australian economy. If it lays in the private sector and the debts are "responsible" in the sense that it's for investment - which will protract economic growth, then there is no debt trap but just a safe, cosy borrowing. Whilst the Aust govt's budget is going quite well, so public sector should recove (2013-14 according to forecasts?)

The biggest concern in my opinon is a housing buble in China. That would be epic. However, considering that China is a communist state - i doubt that would occur. The Chinese are basically just operating an improved (more capitalistic) version of what the Russians did with their NEP from 1922 onwards. The Chinese still maintain control of the supply of money, their currency's value and with their banks they hold reserves, inflation levels and all that crap...

Did anyone buy any USD back when the AUD was 90+? You would have made heaps if you bought quite a bit