onebytwo
Recession '08
Obviously a lot of talk recently of the health of the US economy, particulary in relation to the subprime mortgage market and in general credit markets. What are people's reaction's, opinion's, diagnoses, prognoses, etc?
Alan Greenspan put the chance of recession at 1-in-3 (a while back, a lot has evolved since then). Merill Lynch told its clients recently chance of recession is 100% (will dig up source). Craig James (guy always interviewed on smh) thinks 50-50. One US economist (cant remember name) is adamant the economy is in recession right now. As one would expect with economists, opinions and forecasts are all over the shop.
From Collin Twiggs trade diary, he presents the yield curve and makes and interesting observation that every time the 3-month and 10 year treasury yields touch (ie spread=0), a recession shortly follows. (see attachment).
What do people see as the potential impacts on Australia?
Alan Greenspan put the chance of recession at 1-in-3 (a while back, a lot has evolved since then). Merill Lynch told its clients recently chance of recession is 100% (will dig up source). Craig James (guy always interviewed on smh) thinks 50-50. One US economist (cant remember name) is adamant the economy is in recession right now. As one would expect with economists, opinions and forecasts are all over the shop.
From Collin Twiggs trade diary, he presents the yield curve and makes and interesting observation that every time the 3-month and 10 year treasury yields touch (ie spread=0), a recession shortly follows. (see attachment).
What do people see as the potential impacts on Australia?