Impact on external stability
Surplus budgets throughout the 2000s had a favourable impact upon external stability. The policy of fiscal consolidation (running balanced or surplus budgets) enabled the government to avoid the crowding out effect and eliminate net government debt in 2006, as well as directly increasing national savings through the establishment of the Future Fund and various other funds in which to save budget surpluses.
However, continuing budget deficits until 2012-13 are likely to have a negative impact on external stability. The ‘twin deficits hypothesis’ suggests that the sale of government bonds to finance the deficit may crowd out private domestic investment and worsen the net primary income account producing a ‘twin deficit’ on the current account. Commonwealth Government Securities on issue are expected to increase from $192 billion in 2010-11 to $225 billion in 2011-12. Further, because Australia has open capital markets, government bonds can be purchased by overseas investors, which can lead to an increase in the government’s foreign debt. In fact, the RBA estimates that over 80 per cent of Commonwealth Government Securities on issue are in overseas ownership. Therefore, the financing of Australia’s budget deficits until 2012-13 is likely to lead to an increase in foreign liabilities as foreign investors purchase Commonwealth government bonds. This will increase the net primary income deficit, as those liabilities must be serviced with interest repayments. In this way, successive budget deficits are likely to result in a higher level of foreign liabilities, contributing to the structural component of the current account deficit (CAD) through the net primary income account.
Can someone explain this to me please??