ATAR estimate please (Very detailed info provided!) (1 Viewer)

[JaySea2014]

Hi all!

I would like to request an ATAR estimate for my younger brother, who is doing his HSC in 2016.

The following information is based on his final Year 11 report. I've also included some detailed statistics provided by his school. (I don't know if they'll help your estimates, but I've included them just in case they might)

School rank (Trinity Grammar School)
2015: 99th
2014: 89th
2013: 102nd
2012: 93rd

Subject ranks
English Advanced: 11/109
3U Maths: 3/47
Chemistry: 1/32
Economics: 2/41
Geography: 4/17

He also did accelerated 2U Maths this year (2015). His final HSC mark was 97. (On a side note: can this mark count towards his ATAR if he does 4U Maths next year?)


School Statistics (from 2014 HSC)

4 students with 99+ ATAR
4 students with state ranks
4 students with All-rounders awards

Percentage of students achieving Band 5 or 6
English Advanced: Not published by school (Lol...)
3U Maths: Not published by school
Chemistry: 57%
Economics: 42%
Geography: 57%

Average HSC mark by subject
English Advanced: Not published by school
3U Maths: 81.87
Chemistry: 80.51
Economics: 78.05
Geography: 78.21


Any help will be much appreciated. Thank you!

 

[T-R-O-L-O-L]

woah I cant give you an ATAR, but those are some great marks and school rankings!

 

[Green Yoda]

~99

 

[sida1049]

If your brother does Mathematics Extension 2, it's unlikely that his Mathematics result this year will contribute to his ATAR, unless if he does relatively worse in MX2 (i.e. his Mathematics result this year will probably supersede his MX2 result next year if he receives about 92 or lower).

Your brother is well on his way to receiving an ATAR of at least 99 if he continues to retain his current position in his cohort next year.

 

[tonysoprano]

~99

 

[JaySea2014]

Thanks Rathin and tonysoprano! I'm sure my bro will be very happy hear that. That's a lot higher than we expected haha

 

[JaySea2014]

If your brother does Mathematics Extension 2, it's unlikely that his Mathematics result this year will contribute to his ATAR, unless if he does relatively worse in MX2 (i.e. his Mathematics result this year will probably supersede his MX2 result next year if he receives about 92 or lower).

Your brother is well on his way to receiving an ATAR of at least 99 if he continues to retain his current position in his cohort next year.

Thanks sida!

So just to clarify, if for some reason he does worse in MX2 than he did in Maths 2U, then his 2U result from this year WILL count towards his ATAR? What about other subjects? E.g. if he gets a worse result in MX1 or Geography than he got for 2U, will his 2U result count? :/

 

[authenticity]

Yea, but he would have to do significantly worse for 2U to count towards his atar (based on Talent 100 atar calc, he would have to achieve low 80s for MX2). His ATAR is based on the 10 best units. So i think hypothetically if he did score better in 2U than geo, 2U would count. It's whatever combination of 10 units that will enable you to reach highest ATAR.

 

[JaySea2014]

Yea, but he would have to do significantly worse for 2U to count towards his atar (based on Talent 100 atar calc, he would have to achieve low 80s for MX2). His ATAR is based on the 10 best units. So i think hypothetically if he did score better in 2U than geo, 2U would count. It's whatever combination of 10 units that will enable you to reach highest ATAR.

Yeah I get that. What I'm unsure about is if 2U counted instead of Geo, wouldn't his ATAR be made up of 6 units of maths? Since MX1 and MX2 are counted as 2 units each... That's 4 units already. And then if you add 2U on top of that... 6 units of maths just seems dodgy to me.

That's why I'm kinda confused about how all this works. :/

 

[sida1049]

Thanks sida!

So just to clarify, if for some reason he does worse in MX2 than he did in Maths 2U, then his 2U result from this year WILL count towards his ATAR? What about other subjects? E.g. if he gets a worse result in MX1 or Geography than he got for 2U, will his 2U result count? :/

You're welcome!

I can't say for sure, but I highly doubt that they'll allow 6 units of Mathematics to be factored into the ATAR. A typical MX2 student has to go through the 2U content during their HSC year anyway, yet they are only tested for Extension 1 and 2, hence I would assume that in your brother's case, only the top 4 units of Mathematics will contribute to his ATAR

 

[InteGrand]

Yeah I get that. What I'm unsure about is if 2U counted instead of Geo, wouldn't his ATAR be made up of 6 units of maths? Since MX1 and MX2 are counted as 2 units each... That's 4 units already. And then if you add 2U on top of that... 6 units of maths just seems dodgy to me.

That's why I'm kinda confused about how all this works. :/

Nah, if you do HSC 4U Maths, your 2U Maths won't count.^* Only a maximum of four units of maths is allowed to count, so even if he does worse in HSC Geography than 2U Maths, 2U maths can't replace HSC Geography.


^* Unless he does really badly in 4U (badly enough so that even after scaling, it's worse for his ATAR than 2U counting and also factoring in that if 4U maths counts, 3U maths becomes worth two units whereas it's only one unit if 2U counted. So if he does well in 3U maths, even a score in 4U that scales to lower than the 2U scaled mark could be advantageous for his ATAR, as it doubles the weight of his 3U maths). (Btw You can't have both 2U and 4U count.) So you'd have to really poorly in 4U to have 2U count instead of 4U. So realistically speaking, 4U will count, and 2U will not.

 

[authenticity]

That's what i always assumed (that'll it'll always be either 2U+3U or 3U+4U!) until I actually thought about it because of this post and ended up with the wrong conclusion LOL

 

[JaySea2014]

Nah, if you do HSC 4U Maths, your 2U Maths won't count.^* Only a maximum of four units of maths is allowed to count, so even if he does worse in HSC Geography than 2U Maths, 2U maths can't replace HSC Geography.


^* Unless he does really badly in 4U (badly enough so that even after scaling, it's worse for his ATAR than 2U counting and also factoring in that if 4U maths counts, 3U maths becomes worth two units whereas it's only one unit if 2U counted. So if he does well in 3U maths, even a score in 4U that scales to lower than the 2U scaled mark could be advantageous for his ATAR, as it doubles the weight of his 3U maths). (Btw You can't have both 2U and 4U count.) So you'd have to really poorly in 4U to have 2U count instead of 4U. So realistically speaking, 4U will count, and 2U will not.

Ahhh that actually makes so much more sense. Thank you for explaining everything haha.

What you just explained is something that I think everyone who does accelerated 2U needs to know about (for their own good), but unfortunately I feel like very few people actually know or understand it. :/

 

[JaySea2014]

Now that makes me think... What's the point of doing accelerated 2U maths if in most cases it's not going to count anyway (assuming that most people doing accelerated 2U plan to do MX2 in Year 12)?

The only benefit I can think of is that you get to experience an actual HSC exam, as well as the process of preparing for it through trial exams, doing past papers, etc. Is that all??? I mean, previously I'd assumed that accelerated 2U could help as back-up units, but apparently it doesn't work like that.

 

[InteGrand]

Now that makes me think... What's the point of doing accelerated 2U maths if in most cases it's not going to count anyway (assuming that most people doing accelerated 2U plan to do MX2 in Year 12)?

The only benefit I can think of is that you get to experience an actual HSC exam, as well as the process of preparing for it through trial exams, doing past papers, etc. Is that all??? I mean, previously I'd assumed that accelerated 2U could help as back-up units, but apparently it doesn't work like that.

Yeah if you do 4U maths eventually then your accelerated 2U is essentially irrelevant for you ATAR, even back-up wise. Some people also go on to do MX2 and a total of 10 units including the four units of MX1/MX2, which makes it impossible for 2U maths to count, because then they would only end up with 9 units (as MX1 would only be one unit if 2U maths counts).

If you plan on doing MX2 later, I guess the main benefit to you of accelerating 2U maths is getting practice as you say. I think a lot of people do know that the accelerated 2U will be irrelevant though, so take a relatively chilled approach to it compared to if they knew it would actually count or be useful for their ATAR.

 

[JaySea2014]

More ATAR estimates are welcome! I would like to get as many opinions as possible.

 

[helloimyellow]

High 98 to 99 me thinks

 

[JaySea2014]

High 98 to 99 me thinks

Thanks

 

[haysheet]

I estimated:

eco 92
geo 85
chem 92
mx1 96
mx2 95
eng 91

atar 99.40
congrats

I estimated based on the performance of the 2015 cohort. You can view the number of band6s by school at http://topscores.info/

 

[JaySea2014]

I estimated:

eco 92
geo 85
chem 92
mx1 96
mx2 95
eng 91

atar 99.40
congrats

I estimated based on the performance of the 2015 cohort. You can view the number of band6s by school at http://topscores.info/


edit: as other posters said, 2u maths is very unlike to count, provided his other 4 units of maths are good.

Thanks haysheet! Appreciate your effort.