ATAR estimates (1 Viewer)

[Xanthi]

I have developed a new model to estimate internal exam projected ATAR based on the following data:
-Internal ranks for each subject including the candidature number
-Number of average Band 6 in your school for each subject (you can get it off HSC Ninja)

The model is based off the tangent trigonometric graph which is the best graph I could get to model the top and bottom end. The domain is carefully selected and it is not symmetric. I have tested with some data to ensure obtained results are about right - it's not perfect but certainly better than random guesses out of the air based on what "feels" right!

For increased accuracy, model works better:

-HSC marks expected to be between 80 and 96 (where marks can be reasonably estimated off band 6 numbers)
-You are not in the top 5% of the school in any subject (top marks are very unpredictable).

Post the data required and I am willing to provide some estimates if you want.

 

[Xanthi]

My model projects an ATAR of 92.50. Try to work more on Math Advanced (my model projected a scaled mark of 60% for that) as you can increase that a lot with a good HSC mark.

 

[popjin]

My model projects an ATAR of 92.50. Try to work more on Math Advanced (my model projected a scaled mark of 60% for that) as you can increase that a lot with a good HSC mark.

Thanks! That does give me a bit more confidence. Definitely will try to improve on maths in particular then.

 

[Slippy5]

English Advanced = 100%, 95%, 100%, 93% (trials is the last one) --> ranking is somewhere in top 4/180 --> 33 Band 6's
English Extension = 88%, 92%, 88% --> top 5/25 --> 7 E4's
English Extension 2 = 100%, 95%, 87% --> top 3/13 --> 2/3 E4's
Studies of Religion 2 = 100%, 95%, 100%. 94% --> 1/15 --> 4 band 6's
Ancient History = 100%, 80%, 100%, 100% ---> No clue but guessing top 5/32 --> 6 band 6's
Legal Studies = 92%, 92%, 87%, 83% ---> top 3/27 --> 6 band 6's


Would love an estimate of this --> Im sorry for it being less accurate in your model.

 

[Xanthi]

English Advanced = 100%, 95%, 100%, 93% (trials is the last one) --> ranking is somewhere in top 4/180 --> 33 Band 6's
English Extension = 88%, 92%, 88% --> top 5/25 --> 7 E4's
English Extension 2 = 100%, 95%, 87% --> top 3/13 --> 2/3 E4's
Studies of Religion 2 = 100%, 95%, 100%. 94% --> 1/15 --> 4 band 6's
Ancient History = 100%, 80%, 100%, 100% ---> No clue but guessing top 5/32 --> 6 band 6's
Legal Studies = 92%, 92%, 87%, 83% ---> top 3/27 --> 6 band 6's


Would love an estimate of this --> Im sorry for it being less accurate in your model.

The projected atar based on the model is 97.30. But as I mentioned near the high ranks you could be a lot better than the model predicts, if the top few people are outliers! Also note when you said top x, I inputted the rank as x.

 

[Xanthi]

Update: Model tweaks to be implemented to improve estimate accuracy near top end: Scores both near the top of the cohort and above 90 HSC will likely increase. The old model was too harsh on top performers in low ranking schools and now is replaced by a composite function (tangent and inverse sin) which is almost exactly the same until top 5-10% of the cohort. The rest of the cohort seems to be fairly accurately estimated so was not changed.

Will reestimate slippy5 tonight. Other estimates I have given are probably the same under the new model as the old model but if you want an updated one I'm willing to.

Post below if you want an atar estimate which I will do tonight. It can handle high ranks (but not 1st) better than before as long as the predicted HSC mark doesn't exceed 96. As usual, post ranks, total candidature, past band 6s

 

[Xanthi]

English Advanced = 100%, 95%, 100%, 93% (trials is the last one) --> ranking is somewhere in top 4/180 --> 33 Band 6's
English Extension = 88%, 92%, 88% --> top 5/25 --> 7 E4's
English Extension 2 = 100%, 95%, 87% --> top 3/13 --> 2/3 E4's
Studies of Religion 2 = 100%, 95%, 100%. 94% --> 1/15 --> 4 band 6's
Ancient History = 100%, 80%, 100%, 100% ---> No clue but guessing top 5/32 --> 6 band 6's
Legal Studies = 92%, 92%, 87%, 83% ---> top 3/27 --> 6 band 6's


Would love an estimate of this --> Im sorry for it being less accurate in your model.

Updated projection: modest increase to 97.75. Most subjects stayed pretty much the same as expected (deviation about 0.1 HSC marks each) between the models, except Studies of Religion 2 which increased by about 2 marks.

 

[大きい男]

Are you able to provide me with an ATAR estimate?

School is usually ranked around 40-50

Subject	Assessment Rank	Trial Mark	Avg B6s (2016-2019)
English Advanced	17/154	84/100	29
Mathematics Extension 1	5/92	70/70	23
Mathematics Extension 2	3/29	90/100	8
Chemistry	4/79	96/100	19
Physics	6/65	91/100	20
Music 2	1/4	95/100	2

 

[Drdusk]

Are you able to provide me with an ATAR estimate?

School is usually ranked around 40-50

Subject	Assessment Rank	Trial Mark	Avg B6s (2016-2019)
English Advanced	17/154	84/100	29
Mathematics Extension 1	5/92	70/70	23
Mathematics Extension 2	3/29	90/100	8
Chemistry	4/79	96/100	19
Physics	6/65	91/100	20
Music 2	1/4	95/100	2

I would say definitely mid to high 99’s.

Good job with those ranks mate.

 

[Xanthi]

Are you able to provide me with an ATAR estimate?

School is usually ranked around 40-50

Subject	Assessment Rank	Trial Mark	Avg B6s (2016-2019)
English Advanced	17/154	84/100	29
Mathematics Extension 1	5/92	70/70	23
Mathematics Extension 2	3/29	90/100	8
Chemistry	4/79	96/100	19
Physics	6/65	91/100	20
Music 2	1/4	95/100	2

Your model projected atar is 99.45.

HSC marks projected are:
English - 91
4U - 93
3U - 94
Chem - 93
Phys - 93
Music - 97 (as mentioned 1st may be inaccurate still with current model- excluding this atar projected is 99.30).

Also note model assumes top few ranks have a noticable ability difference. So someone ranked a few ranks above you even in the single digits might have a reasonably higher mark and vice versa.

The actual HSC marks used to project the atar were carried to 2dp. I just rounded them here for convenience.

 

[quickoats]

Prediction just for fun

School rank around 30

Subject	Rank	Trial Mark	Past B6s
English Standard	2/30	93	0, 0, 0
Maths Ext 1	6/100	70/70	55, 55, 52
Maths Ext 2	1/54	99	22, 16, 21
Economics	5/52	77 (lol)	10, 5, 7
Society and Culture	2/12	57/60	6, 1, 7
SOR 1	1/6	47/50	1, 3, 0

 

[Xanthi]

Prediction just for fun

School rank around 30

Subject	Rank	Trial Mark	Past B6s
English Standard	2/30	93	0, 0, 0
Maths Ext 1	6/100	70/70	55, 55, 52
Maths Ext 2	1/54	99	22, 16, 21
Economics	5/52	77 (lol)	10, 5, 7
Society and Culture	2/12	57/60	6, 1, 7
SOR 1	1/6	47/50	1, 3, 0

Model projected atar 98.50

Rounded to nearest integer HSC marks are

English 87
4u 97
3u 97
eco 91
s&c 94
SOR 1 93

 

[Xanthi]

Alright that's all I can do tonight. I might do a few more later this week - but after that I'll have run out of time.

 

[Xanthi]

Prediction just for fun

School rank around 30

Subject	Rank	Trial Mark	Past B6s
English Standard	2/30	93	0, 0, 0
Maths Ext 1	6/100	70/70	55, 55, 52
Maths Ext 2	1/54	99	22, 16, 21
Economics	5/52	77 (lol)	10, 5, 7
Society and Culture	2/12	57/60	6, 1, 7
SOR 1	1/6	47/50	1, 3, 0

Ah, just saw you were 2019 HSC! What did you end up getting if you don't mind saying?

If you know your internals for each subject that would be even better! Just curious how close these numbers were.

 

[Velocifire]

he got 99, says in his signature

 

[Xanthi]

he got 99, says in his signature

Ah, I see.

Looks like my predictions were pretty close overall

Just wondering if the internal marks were even closer.

 

[Velocifire]

Ah, I see.

Looks like my predictions were pretty close overall

Just wondering if the internal marks were even closer.

What is ur projected atar using your own magical system?

 

[DrduskReborn]

Ah, I see.

Looks like my predictions were pretty close overall

Just wondering if the internal marks were even closer.

His marks are in his signature. You can check them out.

 

[Xanthi]

What is ur projected atar using your own magical system?

I will leave that a mystery...but magical the system is indeed.

 

[Velocifire]

I will leave that a mystery...but magical the system is indeed.

Yeah that’s alright. Finally someone that knows their stuff unlike @Hscbuzman who throws random numbers out of his hat.