ATAR estimates (1 Viewer)

[DiamondPiglet]

Hey mate can you do an ATAR estimate, school is usually rank 15-30

Subject	Rank	Trial Mark	Past B6s (2017, 2018, 2019)
English Advanced	41/158	80	53, 51, 41
Math Advanced	somewhere between 40-50/105	68	62, 70, 62
Economics	7/48	85	19, 20, 10
Geography	4/9	90	4, 2, 5
Legal Studies	3/28	93	15, 11, 18

 

[Xanthi]

can you do an ATAR estimate for me? My schools is around 170-200ish normally, but jumped to around 140ish in 2019

Subjects Biology Chemistry Earth science English Advanced Maths Extension 1 Maths extension 2

Trial Marks 94/100 94/100 57/100 (ceebs studying, dropping next week) 84/100 96% 89%

Rank 1/58 1/35 23/46 6/38 1/22 1/7

No. of band 6s in past 3 years 2,0,4 2,2,0 0 (no one did it on 2019),4,3 13,12,8 12,12,7 2,2,2

Projected atar 99.30

HSC marks rounded to nearest integer
Eng 91
4u 95
3u 98
Chem 91
Bio 91
Earth 78

As noted before 1st ranks could be better than predicted.

Edit: Bio not phys, just mistyped but calculations are correct

 

[Xanthi]

Hey mate can you do an ATAR estimate, school is usually rank 15-30

Subject	Rank	Trial Mark	Past B6s (2017, 2018, 2019)
English Advanced	41/158	80	53, 51, 41
Math Advanced	somewhere between 40-50/105	68	62, 70, 62
Economics	7/48	85	19, 20, 10
Geography	4/9	90	4, 2, 5
Legal Studies	3/28	93	15, 11, 18

Projected atar 97.85

HSC nearest integer
Eng 90
M adv 92
Eco 93
Geo 89
Legal 96

 

[idkkdi]

Projected atar 99.30

HSC marks rounded to nearest integer
Eng 91
4u 95
3u 98
Chem 91
Phys 91
Earth 78

As noted before 1st ranks could be better than predicted.

i don't agree with the models 3u,4u math predictions for him. Likely lower.

 

[Xanthi]

i don't agree with the models 3u,4u math predictions for him. Likely lower.

1st in more than half the cohort b6s is pretty good. Similar to my prediction of quickoats and he did better/fairly close to my prediction (model: 97, 97 | overall: 98, 99).

 

[idkkdi]

1st in more than half the cohort b6s is pretty good. Similar to my prediction of quickoats and he did better/fairly close to my prediction (model: 97, 97 | overall: 98, 99).

school ranks are different. Much rarer to see high band 6's in lower ranks.

 

[Xanthi]

school ranks are different. Much rarer to see high band 6's in lower ranks.

The school rank too is determined by the number of b6s not top b6s though. So it might be just that his school has lots of ext1 b6s but not in other subjects, which I would find a fairly reliable measure. 96% on trial also seems to support this (trial percentage not included in model obviously though).

What I mean is it shouldn't matter whether a school is ranked 20 or 200 if they have the same proportion of band 6's, as the school rank itself is determined by b6 %.

 

[black.mamba]

@Xanthi, could you also give me an atar estimate? (wondering how much english will drag me down)
not sure about exacts ranks, especially for my worse subjects, so im guessing a bit here
english rank: ~75-85/175
B6: 60-80 per year, although i think my cohort is slightly weaker than usual in english
mx2 rank: ~12/80
B6: ~40 per year but the top of this years cohort is especially strong, and I've underperformed this year
mx1 rank: =1/120 (tied with one other person)
B6: ~80 per year, relative differences in raw marks are tiny, but im guessing that won't affect me if im rank 1
chem rank: 1/100
B6: ~40 per year
phys rank: ~7/80 (i think I've confirmed its 5 to 7, likely 7)
B6: ~40 per year
geo rank: 3/50 ? (missed trials, was rank 3 beforehand)
B6: ~30 per year

 

[hello10]

Hey @Xanthi , could you please give me an ATAR prediction too! I haven't done that well this year, so any sort of indication of where I'm sitting at rn would be good. My school rank is pretty bad too (200s-300s).

Subject- Rank- No. of Band 6s we usually get

Eng. Adv- 1/49- 1
Physics- 6/30- 2
Eco- 11/39- 1
Maths Adv.- 5/56- around 10
Maths Ext. - 11/30- between 5 and 10
Chem- 10/33- around 5

If this helps, I know I can get a band 6 in English and Maths for sure, for everything else I'm probably at Band 5 level rn.

 

[Xanthi]

@Xanthi, could you also give me an atar estimate? (wondering how much english will drag me down)
not sure about exacts ranks, especially for my worse subjects, so im guessing a bit here
english rank: ~75-85/175
B6: 60-80 per year, although i think my cohort is slightly weaker than usual in english
mx2 rank: ~12/80
B6: ~40 per year but the top of this years cohort is especially strong, and I've underperformed this year
mx1 rank: =1/120 (tied with one other person)
B6: ~80 per year, relative differences in raw marks are tiny, but im guessing that won't affect me if im rank 1
chem rank: 1/100
B6: ~40 per year
phys rank: ~7/80 (i think I've confirmed its 5 to 7, likely 7)
B6: ~40 per year
geo rank: 3/50 ? (missed trials, was rank 3 beforehand)
B6: ~30 per year

The 2019 aggreggate-scaling-matched projected atar is 99.75. For previous estimates I used averaged data over past ten years but at high 99s it becomes more relevant with syllabus change. Also HSC Ninja is overestimating the top atars for sure as it says 468.5 is 99.95 in 2019, and that is never true. I wonder how that happened. I have replaced the aggreggate ATAR data set with something more accurate and will apply for all atars >99.50.

HSC marks nearest integer
English - 88
Ext 2 - 95
Ext 1 - 100
Chem - 98
Phys - 96
Geo - 98

2019 Aggreggate: 468.22

 

[Xanthi]

Hey @Xanthi , could you please give me an ATAR prediction too! I haven't done that well this year, so any sort of indication of where I'm sitting at rn would be good. My school rank is pretty bad too (200s-300s).

Subject- Rank- No. of Band 6s we usually get

Eng. Adv- 1/49- 1
Physics- 6/30- 2
Eco- 11/39- 1
Maths Adv.- 5/56- around 10
Maths Ext. - 11/30- between 5 and 10
Chem- 10/33- around 5

If this helps, I know I can get a band 6 in English and Maths for sure, for everything else I'm probably at Band 5 level rn.

Hey @Xanthi , could you please give me an ATAR prediction too! I haven't done that well this year, so any sort of indication of where I'm sitting at rn would be good. My school rank is pretty bad too (200s-300s).

Subject- Rank- No. of Band 6s we usually get

Eng. Adv- 1/49- 1
Physics- 6/30- 2
Eco- 11/39- 1
Maths Adv.- 5/56- around 10
Maths Ext. - 11/30- between 5 and 10
Chem- 10/33- around 5

If this helps, I know I can get a band 6 in English and Maths for sure, for everything else I'm probably at Band 5 level rn.

Projected Atar 94.45

HSC nearest integer
Eng 90
Phys 84
Eco 79
M adv 92
M ext 87
Chem 85

 

[Xanthi]

Alright that is the last atar estimate I have time to give for now. All the best for the HSC exams!

 

[vernburn]

@Xanthi, could you please do one more estimate for me! I go top 5 selective school, comparable to the one @black.mamba goes to. I too am not too sure about my ranks as the school is cautious about giving them out. Apart from MX2, these are all estimations:
English advanced rank: ~15-20/175
B6: 60-80 per year, although i think the cohort is slightly weaker than usual in English
mx2 rank: 1/80
B6: ~40 per year
mx1 rank: =~3-5/120
B6: ~80 per year, all the top people are crammed together so I'm not too far off from first.
chemistry rank: 7~10/100
B6: ~40 per year
physics rank: ~15/80 (probably my weakest subject, apart from English!)
B6: ~40 per year
Latin continuers rank: ~6-8/21
B6: ~20 per year (this year has fewer students).
Latin extension rank: ~4/18
B6: ~20 per year (this year has fewer students).

Once again, could you please just do one more estimate for me. Thank you so much!!!!!

 

[Xanthi]

@Xanthi, could you please do one more estimate for me! I go top 5 selective school, comparable to the one @black.mamba goes to. I too am not too sure about my ranks as the school is cautious about giving them out. Apart from MX2, these are all estimations:
English advanced rank: ~15-20/175
B6: 60-80 per year, although i think the cohort is slightly weaker than usual in English
mx2 rank: 1/80
B6: ~40 per year
mx1 rank: =~3-5/120
B6: ~80 per year, all the top people are crammed together so I'm not too far off from first.
chemistry rank: 7~10/100
B6: ~40 per year
physics rank: ~15/80 (probably my weakest subject, apart from English!)
B6: ~40 per year
Latin continuers rank: ~6-8/21
B6: ~20 per year (this year has fewer students).
Latin extension rank: ~4/18
B6: ~20 per year (this year has fewer students).

Once again, could you please just do one more estimate for me. Thank you so much!!!!!

Congrats!

Project 2019 aggreggate-scaling-matched projected atar is 99.95.

For each subject to the nearest integer, HSC marks:

Eng 92
Ext 2 99
Ext 1 99
Chem 95
Phys 94
Latin Continuers 97
Latin Extension 100

Phys did not count. You're right on the edge - if you need 99.95 you probably want to be doing a decent amount better in chem and english. Latin ext might be closer to 99 but the model gave you 100 so you get to keep it - also note I made some guesses as to how much the cohort were adjusted down i.e 17/21 b6 for continuers and 15/18 b6 for extension - if this is awfully off tell me asap and I can reestimate!

Aggreggate 476.8 > 476.6 (99.95)

 

[vernburn]

Thank you so much! I did not expect a prediction that high.

 

[black.mamba]

just as a reference, the predictions were 0.05 higher than the school predictions for both me and @vernburn but school predictions were based off trials only (our trial ranks were mostly similar to overall ranks)

 

[Xanthi]

just as a reference, the predictions were 0.05 higher than the school predictions for both me and @vernburn but school predictions were based off trials only (our trial ranks were mostly similar to overall ranks)

Wow, interesting! Looks like I hit it pretty close and the model's working well