2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Rudd? (4 Viewers)

[absolution*]

Re: 2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

Id only prefer Labor on the condition that Garrett becomes leader. Otherwise Libs.

 

[gerhard]

Re: 2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

Whilst the government has made some recent errors, errors that are expected after 10 year in office, I have absolutely no confidence in the wishy-washy platform of Labor, nor in their ability to manage the macro elements of economic repsonsibility. Too often, they attempt to appease an array of political pressure points which leads to promises a plenty, and often contradictory standpoints.

Last week I heard of a policy slogan they're adopting, something to the effect of "we live in a society not an economy". This type of attitude furthers the minimal confidence I have in the ALP in ensuring that the economic management of the country remains strong andviable. No matter what type of political spin they attempt to place upon the slogan, the fact remains that social prosperity and the like, are undopubtedly improved through economic prosperity. Sacrifice the latter, and the consequences to the former are immense. A lesser ability to spend, reuced ability to gain employment, greater financial pressures and the like. Economic management isn't an end in itself, but rather a means by which social support and welfare can be generated.

What we do need however, is for someone in the Liberal Party to initiate a change in attitude towards infrastructure and tax reform, and ensure that the benefits of economic sustainability are translated into tangible benefits for the electorate. Although micro and macro policies cannot both be overly zealous and have expansionary effects on the economy simultaneously, a ten year platform outlining the future for Australia, in regards to reform and infrastructure, would be the first step by government to prove to the electorate that they are completely serious about Australia's economic and social future prosperity.

thats iemma's slogan for the state election, not federal labor

 

[Silver Persian]

Re: 2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

Poor democrats...Ive actually noticed them a couple of times over the past few months doing things that I agree with...but they didnt get _any_ senators into parliament at the last election and I doubt this will change. I like them as a splinter group between labour and liberal more than the greens

They should but Natasha back in the leadership

 

[Xayma]

Re: 2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

I'll probably vote Labor for House of Reps, it won't do much unless I bother to change to my address to a sydney based one as Farrer is a safe Liberal seat.

Senate for Democrats, with Greens then Labor preferenced (I'll have to do it under the line by the look of it) FFP last. But I don't particularly want to see the senate in control of one party, and would prefer FFP not being the balance.

The IR laws are fucked (making employers dock wages off employees or face fines themselves is idiotic and just makes employers less likely to allow them to do charitable things) and Howards social policy hasn't particularly been inspiring.

 

[loquasagacious]

Re: 2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

I'm going to jump on the bandwagon and say 'too close to call'.

My tip however is for a liberal victory (intentional use of lib not coalition) in the reps and independents/minor parties balance of power in the senate.

Greens: I detest and to the person who earlier said they were the only real alternative: you are deluded. The greens are NOT an alternative party of government. They are a disproportionately represented lobby party in the senate, they have the luxory of being able to propose anything without the responsibility of ever having to enact it. They play this to its fullest grabbing votes from labour left, ironically left behind when the party embraced neo-liberalism (The BA Dip Eds) and generally from the left. They have great publicity and they work it well. Also their ACT branch office or somesuch is run by an ANU Arts/Law student, thats got to count for something.

Democrats: Will be finally wiped from the political map and about time to. The bad news for greens and laborites is that as last time the votes will probably flow back to their ancestral home, the liberals.

Nationals: I wouldn't shed a tear if they disappeared, it seems unlikely though. More likely they continue to fade and their dismal performance raises the question of a merger/takeover by the the libs again.

Liberals: Play as they have been and they will likely win. Abbot should be enough to stop conservative votes flowing too much to FFP.

Labor: Play as they have been and they will likely loose.

My vote will be lib in reps and I am undecided in the senate, maybe a small free-market party.

 

[Xayma]

Re: 2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

Voting 1 Greens for both, so they get the cash so that there's competition in future.

Definitely NOT placing Labor anywhere because of the internet filtering business... that'll be... interesting.

I'll probably preference labor + greens in the Senate.

Almost impossible to enact (there will always be problems with filtering used unless you blacklist specific sites and they don't have the power to go the way of China in terms of filtering so proxies would always win). I must say the idea of filtering is slightly better then the US approach of wanting records of what sites you visited in an effort to stave off "child pornography".

Yeah it is a fucked idea anyway still, but hopefully they'll before the next election or if they look like they'll have a chance I'll vote for independent.

 

[mossup]

Re: 2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

i don't want john howard OR kim beazly.........do u think gina davis would like a job outside of acting ? *wink*

 

[sarevok]

Re: 2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

libs in the house of reps and labor in the senate

 

[Iron]

Re: 2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

I'm going to jump on the bandwagon and say 'too close to call'.

.

I think Labor's doing well to have a huge difference this far out from polling. Add the publicity and the gloss of a campaign, I reckon they'll do more than recover from 04. - Albeit from a vote against the Coalition, rather than a vote for the ALP.

It's going to be one scary mo fo of a campaign too! - Latham's positive one was smashed thoroughly by the negative Coalition one. Forget about Costello smirks, or Howard lies, it will hit home this time - culture/family/$$$. Expect the four horsemen of the apocolypse etc

Id also add that the Libs are juust begining to show cracks (backbench revolts, angry Nats etc) A decade is pretty long. 93-6, Labor didnt really have any petrol in the tank. Governments naturally get exhausted sooner or later. Many more job sackings and i'll wager that they wont appear invincible anymore.

Once Kim appears on the T.V every night with policy announcments, and beats Howard/Costello in the debate again, people will once more accept the idea of a Labor government being possible. Im sure people will accept that a Beazely government would entail merely minor adjustments anyway. It would be business as usual, even if he is just a one term wonder.

Anyway, Labor is always kinder to the students. 3yrs of a few ALP bonuses, then we finish our degree and start being wooed by the party kinder to business.

 

[ZabZu]

Re: 2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

My seat of North Sydney is held by Joe Jockey by a significant margin

Im in that area too except ill be voting Labor, even though its going to be almost impossible for Hockey to be voted out.

I reckon the Industrial Relations reforms are going to be the governments downfall and we'll see the ALP come to power after 11 years in opposition. The coalition will lose lots of their seats in blue collar and middle class areas where people will have lost their job security and had their pay cut.

However, having said that Beazley's announcement on IR isnt very encouraging for business and the economy. Hes gone too far with his announcement to abolish AWAs. I think AWAs should still exist but only for small business and they should have the no disadvantage clause (which was removed by the recent reforms) plus a number of other safeguards such as meal breaks, public holidays, etc .

 

[Rafy]

Re: 2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

even though its going to be almost impossible for Hockey to be voted out.

indeed, from memory North sydney is held by the Libs by a 10% margin.

Latest opinion poll is Morgan, released yesterday and is 53-47 in Labor's favour. Morgan however has had quite an infamous history of quite inaccurate polling (some commentators argue a ~4% bias towards labor). However all three major political polls are currently in labors favour, albeit all are hovering within the normal margin of error range.

chart of all 3 major polls

Another interesting thing is the betting market. All the major bookmakers are giving a liberal win.

Centrebet: Coalition win: $1.57 ; Labor win: $2.25.
IASBet : Coalition win: $1.60 ; Labor win: $2.25.
SportingBet: Coalition win: $1.62 ; Labor win: $2.20.
SportsBet: Coalition win: $1.60 ; Labor win: $2.20.

 

[ujuphleg]

Re: 2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

Everyone knows that what really wins an election is the last 6 weeks or so of the campaign.

However if I was to pick:

I'd say that (unfortunatley) the Liberals will win the next election, but they'll lose their senate majority.

A leadership change will occur after that, either by choice or force in both parties, with Costello and Gillard (or Rudd) taking the leadership of their respective parties.

The election after 2007 (ie, 2010) will see Gillard defeat Costello.

After this, the economy will go into significant downturn because of the lack of investment in infrastructure/education/health and superannuation etc. and a downturn in the US economy, led by a strengthening of the East Asian bloc.

Because the economy is in the shitter and the Libs will play the "We told you so" card, the politically unaware public will vote in a Liberal government again after one or two terms of Labor, because the Liberals will campaign on the platform that Labor are bad economic managers (disgregarding the fact that they were the oens that stuffed it in the first place)

^^ That scenario only occurs if the leadership stays the same though.

If Howard was to bow out before the end of 2006 (which I doubt, but if Costello lead a coup of sorts) then the Liberals will loose this election. Changing leaders now would be the worst thing to happen to them. The Industrial Relations legislation will already put the Liberals behind by alot.

Inversely, the best thing that Labor could do would be to change leaders right now, and get Gillard in ASAP. Of course, the factional zoo isn't going to allow for this, as she doesn't have enough support from the Right but it would be nice. Gillard would give Labor a fighting chance to win this election.

Beazley isn't a good leader - the quote in my signature is about him, and I find it to be very true.

In terms of who I'm voting for - I live in a very safe Liberal seat, so it won't matter. If the ALP run a candidate I'll vote for them, even better if the Dems do (but I don't think they will) Ideally I'd vote Democrats and preference the ALP for both houses.

 

[ryan11]

Re: 2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

Julian Morrow.

 

[Pieces of Me]

Re: 2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

Coalition as long as Costello doesn't become PM. I think the only way labor could ever get in is if they got rid of Beazley. But thats just my opinion.

 

[ujuphleg]

Re: 2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

What about Kevin Rudd, he's

Rudd makes an excellent Foreign Minister, and he should stay there. He speaks ~5 languages fluently, including Mandarin.

 

[Rafy]

Re: 2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

The latest opinion poll has a number of very interesting trends. Its pretty much all bad news for Labor. As the smh article says:

"Labor would have hoped to have done better given that the poll followed the Government's controversial embrace of nuclear energy, continued unrest over industrial relations, and Coalition backbencher divisions over immigration policy and the overturning of the ACT's civil unions laws."


Labor Primary vote has fallen below the ~40% needed to win an election.

Labor's primary support dropped four points from 40 per cent to 36 per cent.

Only 27% of voters think they will be worse off under the new I.R laws. A great portion of these people are likely to be labor voters. I feel this is the most significant worry to come out of this poll for labor. Their vocal campaign against the IR reforms has not traslated into turning voters from the coalition.

Of the 82 per cent of voters aware of the industrial relations changes, 6 per cent thought they would be better off, 27 per cent worse off, and 64 per cent - up seven points since October - said they would "make no difference".

In Two party preferred terms, its basically a tie. This is despite the multitude of recent problems the government has faced recently.

Labor continues to lead the Government, beating it 51-49 on a two-party-preferred basis. ([...]the lead has slipped by 3 percentage points from a month ago, when Labor led by 54 per cent to 46 per cent.)

The AWA announcement has support amongst Labor voters, however support is mixed where it really counts.

Mr Beazley's support among Labor voters leapt seven points to 66 per cent in the poll, underscoring suggestions that his decisive stance on industrial relations had helped galvanise the party's base. [...]

"The detail of Mr Beazley's announcement on AWAs had made little impression on many voters," said the ACNielsen pollster John Stirton. The poll found 38 per cent supported Mr Beazley's abolition of the agreements, 27 per cent opposed it, while 35 per cent had no opinion or did not care.

Support for the liberal's remains just about steady. (i.e all movements have been on the labor side)

The Coalition's primary vote remained steady at 41 per cent, helped by a small, one-point increase in primary support for the Nationals. That is despite the Nationals being humiliated by a failed merger attempt in Queensland three weeks ago.

The approval rating of the Prime Minister, John Howard, remained relatively steady at 54 per cent. Mr Howard remained preferred prime minister by 54 per cent to Mr Beazley's 33 per cent.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/alp-vote-falls-after-beazley-vow/2006/06/18/1150569211530.html
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/now-its-time-for-new-policies/2006/06/18/1150569211563.html

 

[CSI: CRIMES ™]

Re: 2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

i have to say this, but johnny will win again.

 

[katie_tully]

Re: 2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

Anybody but Beazley. Dear god, no.

Problem with voting Liberal is you get those stupid twits that tag along, like family first and such and such. And family first reminds me of Cardinal George Pell. And I HATE George Pell.

I'll just vote for the four wheel drive party.

 

[lil_huyenie]

Re: 2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

well heres the thing..

i hate john howard, its probably his eyebrows that annoys me (no offence to those who are john howard fans) but then again despite his appearance and deceitfulness i think that he has served our economy well...soo really it seems like a tough call for me...

beazly...dun trust him with the job..he failed to prove that he could do it before, what does he have to show that he can do it now..??

 

[katie_tully]

Re: 2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

I feel there are several things wrong with the Liberals.
Kim Beazley.
Kim Beazley whinging about the AWA's too much.
Kim Beazley not giving anybody a reason for us to want to vote him in.
Kim Beazley.