2007 State Election - Labor or the Coalition/Iemma or Debnam? (3 Viewers)

[frog12986]

Has anyones general perception been from talking to people that theres going to be one heck of a backlash against the ALP that these polls aren't capturing?

Debnam may not make it into the 50% region on votes for him, but he sure as heck might on all the votes against Iemma.

It's hard to say.

The Laborites are attempting to promote the lack of an alternative, which is complete and utter rubbish. Liberal supporters on the other hand are promoting that a change of government is necessary to achieve some form of difference, and that the Opposition couldn't do any worse; after all elections occur every four years.

My predictions however are bad news for the Liberal Party, with a late swing highly unlikely, unless Sunday turns into a disaster.

ALP 56 Seats (gain South Coast, retain Newcastle), Coalition 31 Independents 6

I presume this will equate to a 2PP vote of around 56-44.

Whilst I do believe that a credible alternative does exist (what couldn't be credibleto this government), the ALP smear campaign will ulitmately have the last say, as will the perceptionthat Iemma is 'change'. I am however only going by the poll indicators, with little andecdotal evidence to go by.

 

[Josie]

As usual, I don't know anyone voting liberal.

But of course, my region is one of the safest labor seats and has been for a long time.

 

[withoutaface]

In other news, the Greens release a moronic drugs policy which ignores the primary benefit of complete legalisation, being more consistent concentrations and well labeled packaging.

 

[bshoc]

In other news, the Greens release a moronic drugs policy which ignores the primary benefit of complete legalisation, being more consistent concentrations and well labeled packaging.

Just when you think the Greens couldn't get any more retarded, they come along and prove everyone wrong.

Greens being wrong isnt so much news as it is a constant fact of life ..

 

[Triangulum]

It was only three years ago that commentators were talking about the future, or lack thereof, for the Labor Party; how the tables have turned.

Moral of the story: don't bother listening to commentators. The majority of them are clueless and simply recite received wisdom instead of actually thinking about things.

 

[ElenaV]

Lower house: No vote

Upper house: numbering every single candidate, major parties last, but will give two candidates same preference number to make vote invalid after they read through and waste their time going through no hoper votes for the real vote. Woohoo.

 

[withoutaface]

Lower house: No vote

Upper house: numbering every single candidate, major parties last, but will give two candidates same preference number to make vote invalid after they read through and waste their time going through no hoper votes for the real vote. Woohoo.

Yeah, cause throwing your vote away's a heaps awesome way to get the results you want to see in your community.

 

[ElenaV]

How will voting someone into state parliament get rid of the state, justin?

i'm a fucking better libertarian than you will ever be. Any vote is a vote for the state. They have no right to steal from me, and to coerce me into acting in certain ways. I reject their authority over me.

edit: Shooters party seem pretty win, thanks for info Justin.

 

[Nick Minchin]

Lower house: No vote

Upper house: numbering every single candidate, major parties last, but will give two candidates same preference number to make vote invalid after they read through and waste their time going through no hoper votes for the real vote. Woohoo.

There will be 333 candidates.
Note, your vote will still be valid unless the duplication is of a preference between 1-15. Otherwise it will simply exhaust at the preference before the one that is duplicated. It won't waste them much time at all (They only care that the first 15 prefs are correct, not all 333). It will however waste your time.

 

[withoutaface]

How will voting someone into state parliament get rid of the state, justin?

i'm a fucking better libertarian than you will ever be. Any vote is a vote for the state. They have no right to steal from me, and to coerce me into acting in certain ways. I reject their authority over me.

edit: Shooters party seem pretty win, thanks for info Justin.

Libertarianism:
a) doesn't always call for the complete destruction of the state. Minarchism v anarchocapitalism.
b) relies more on reform than bloody revolution.

 

[Captain Gh3y]

I'm voting for the Party Party Party, Party, in the upper house.

 

[volition]

Libertarianism:
a) doesn't always call for the complete destruction of the state. Minarchism v anarchocapitalism.
b) relies more on reform than bloody revolution.

Yeah one anarchocapitalist I know doesn't vote, he'd prefer to hope that secessionism works.

That said, I still think that something is better than nothing, and if you are the type of person who wants to reduce the role of government, then you should vote accordingly, rather than "not voting on principle" or anything like that.

 

[ur_inner_child]

Debnam admits Labor may win
Alex Smith
March 16, 2007 - 10:40AM

Opposition Leader Peter Debnam has publicly acknowledged Labor is on course to beat the Coalition at the March 24 NSW election.

The Liberal leader made the grim assessement in the wake of a new opinion poll today that shows the Iemma Government is poised to win with a two-party preferred vote of 58 per cent compared with the Coalition's 42.

"The one [poll] that I am really focused on is March 24," Mr Debnam told reporters at State Parliament House.

"However, if this poll taken today, if it is taken in key seats and if it is correct, then the message is very clear: the Labor party is going to win the election in a week."

Mr Debnam said that despite the results of the Galaxy poll, published in News Limited newspapers, he would "keep fighting hard to win this election".

"We've got a week to say to the people of NSW if you don't like the job that Labor have done over the last 12 years then don't vote Labor," he said.

The frank admission by Mr Debnam could add fuel to dissatisfaction within party ranks over his leadership, which has failed to make a dent against Labor despite a series of government blunders.

Today's polls is the latest in a series of surveys that have ben nothing but bad news for Mr Debnam and the Coalition.

A Herald/ACNielsen opinion poll published on February 27 put Labor 57 per cent against 43 per cent for the Coalition on a two-party preferred basis.

Morris Iemma was the preferred premier, attracting 55 per cent against 26 per cent for Mr Debnam.

Separately, focus groups conducted for the Herald show that swinging voters regard Mr Debnam as being "like Frank Spencer" and "lacking warmth".

SMH

 

[Scanorama]

Debnam doesn't stand a chance. I mean Labor is bad, after numerous stuff up, they deserve to go. But Debnam and the coalition is worse. All this time I can see is Debnam doing a one man show. Me and my friends were trying to name his other shadow minsters but we can only come up with 1 or 2 names. Beside I hate the way Debnam gave his speech, thinking he is the boss of all, not the ideal premier I want.

NSW Coalition is like Federal ALP before Beazley left. They need a chance of leader, someone better than Debnam. John Bodgen annoyed the crap out of me whenever he appeared on the TV, I can't believe they chose someone worse to replace him.

Labor will get my vote this election, simply because I don't want Debnam becomes the new Premier.

 

[withoutaface]

Debnam doesn't stand a chance. I mean Labor is bad, after numerous stuff up, they deserve to go. But Debnam and the coalition is worse. All this time I can see is Debnam doing a one man show. Me and my friends were trying to name his other shadow minsters but we can only come up with 1 or 2 names. Beside I hate the way Debnam gave his speech, thinking he is the boss of all, not the ideal premier I want.

The fact that you can't name shadow ministers doesn't mean much, because the media never gives them airtime.

 

[frog12986]

Debnam doesn't stand a chance. I mean Labor is bad, after numerous stuff up, they deserve to go. But Debnam and the coalition is worse. All this time I can see is Debnam doing a one man show. Me and my friends were trying to name his other shadow minsters but we can only come up with 1 or 2 names. Beside I hate the way Debnam gave his speech, thinking he is the boss of all, not the ideal premier I want.

NSW Coalition is like Federal ALP before Beazley left. They need a chance of leader, someone better than Debnam. John Bodgen annoyed the crap out of me whenever he appeared on the TV, I can't believe they chose someone worse to replace him.

Labor will get my vote this election, simply because I don't want Debnam becomes the new Premier.

Correct me if I am wrong, but Iemma has shielded his ministers much more than Debnam. This really does highlight the role the media plays in all of this.

In other news, David Barr has done a preference deal with the Greens, so there goes Manly...

 

[frog12986]

I think Mumble places the poll into context quite well, indicating that not much will change:

March 16 Galaxy poll in says 58 to 42 (a swing to Libs)
In the Tele, at first glace suggests a swing to Labor from the last election (which was 56 to 44). But it was only held in five seats - Camden, Gosford, Kiama, Londonderry and Menai - which collectively voted about 59 to 41 in 2003, so if we take it literally it shows a miniscule swing to the Coalition.
Still, with every poll that fails to show substantial movement to Debnam, the likelihood of me upping yesterday's numbers, some time next week, increases.

 

[Sparcod]

There's about a week till the elections and I'm a first-time voter. Interesting election it'll be because both Iemma and Debnam are both relatively new leaders of their repective parties given that they've been in there for less than two years.

The good thing about NSW's electoral districts are actually named after the suburb or town or geographical region that they take up, unlike the federal electorates.

At the moment, I reckon that Labor will win. I'm saying this because if you look at the number of seats in the Legislative Assembly, Labor is ahead by miles. I might be wrong though.


I'd like to ask some questions about elections.

1. How long does it take from the time of the election-win to the first day on the job in power? So say for example, if Peter Debnam wins, when does he officially start?

2. Does two-party preferred mean that voters can either choose Labor or Liberals or does it mean that they count all the primary votes and take into account those who voted for either?

3. What happens if two parties win the same number of seats?


(I'm really sorry about the long post)

 

[bshoc]

Debnam doesn't stand a chance. I mean Labor is bad, after numerous stuff up, they deserve to go. But Debnam and the coalition is worse. All this time I can see is Debnam doing a one man show. Me and my friends were trying to name his other shadow minsters but we can only come up with 1 or 2 names. Beside I hate the way Debnam gave his speech, thinking he is the boss of all, not the ideal premier I want.

NSW Coalition is like Federal ALP before Beazley left. They need a chance of leader, someone better than Debnam. John Bodgen annoyed the crap out of me whenever he appeared on the TV, I can't believe they chose someone worse to replace him.

Labor will get my vote this election, simply because I don't want Debnam becomes the new Premier.

That my friends is called a Laborite in denial, or in the closet if you prefer.

 

[wheredanton]

Have I posted in this thread?

ALP because the alternative is so damn bloody awful. If Brogs was still opposition leader I wouldn't have minded him becoming premier. While I personally don't dislike Debnam it's the shadowy people behind him that scare me.