2013 Federal election (2 Viewers)

[TheGreatest99.95]

Both Newspoll and Lonergan are showing that Rudd will lose his seat. Terrible marginal seat polling in Tasmania and QLD out today. They are going backwards in the national Nielsen poll. All indications are that the negative scare campaign has failed to resonate. Unfortunately for Labor thats pretty much all they had left.

Labor has now abandoned their strategy of trying to pick up seats from the LNP in Queensland and has switched to sandbagging seats they already hold. As qld was pretty much the only realistic prospect of picking up the seats they need to win, Labor have essentially conceded defeat.

http://www.afr.com/p/national/alp_abandons_rudd_charm_offensive_mywt2iJMh78PZzoRe2R8pL

its been over for them for a longggg time. Sportsbet has Labor handicapped at 19.5+ seats now. Theres still two weeks to go, perhaps it could get back to how it was with Gillard. Expect a wipeout. Rudd should have done an early election, idiot!

 

[Kiraken]

Both Newspoll and Lonergan are showing that Rudd will lose his seat. Terrible marginal seat polling in Tasmania and QLD out today. They are going backwards in the national Nielsen poll. All indications are that the negative scare campaign has failed to resonate. Unfortunately for Labor thats pretty much all they had left.

Labor has now abandoned their strategy of trying to pick up seats from the LNP in Queensland and has switched to sandbagging seats they already hold. As qld was pretty much the only realistic prospect of picking up the seats they need to win, Labor have essentially conceded defeat.

http://www.afr.com/p/national/alp_abandons_rudd_charm_offensive_mywt2iJMh78PZzoRe2R8pL

apparently lonergan is untested and has some figures at odds with other major polls that have a good track record

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-polit...e-showing-strange-results-20130822-2sep7.html

 

[Rafy]

apparently lonergan is untested and has some figures at odds with other major polls that have a good track record

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-polit...e-showing-strange-results-20130822-2sep7.html

Newspoll backed up the Lonergan results precisely. That article was written before a string of traditional phone polling pretty much confirmed the results the robopolls were getting. They also have a good track record in US elections.

 

[Kiraken]

Newspoll backed up the Lonergan results precisely. That article was written before a string of traditional phone polling pretty much confirmed the results the robopolls were getting. They also have a good track record in US elections.

However, other than Newspoll, the national polls have not moved to the Coalition very much. I would trust the national polls much more than the marginal seat polls because the national polls have a good track record at predicting elections, while the robopolls are fairly new. In Australia’s compulsory voting system, robopolls may be biased towards the party whose supporters are most motivated, because those supporters will be more likely to respond to a robot. At this election, there is no doubt that the most motivated voters are those who hate the Labor government.

"the other polls taken last week show a picture different from Newspoll, and it is still plausible that Labor could come back from 52-48 down."

http://www.lonerganresearch.com.au/news/in-the-news/politics/federal-poll-analysis/

This is from Lonergan's own analysis, pretty much stating that Newspoll isn't really directly consistent with that of other polls as well as presenting the possibility that robopolling in marginal seats is not necessarily as reliable as national polling

 

[Rafy]

Even on current national polling, the coalition are in landslide territory. (And that's not just newspoll. All aggregates show 53+ 2PP for the coalition)

 

[soloooooo]

There is no question Abbott will win although I don't think it will be a landslide, nor do I think Rudd will lose his seat.

 

[soloooooo]

and she wants to bring back the White Australia policy.

I would support that.

 

[Rafy]

Killing Julia: how Kevin Rudd got even

 

[lochnessmonsta]

Killing Julia: how Kevin Rudd got even

I really like that article

 

[townie]

Just on the polls briefly, is anybody aware who does and doesn't use mobile phones to poll people?

 

[NWO]

Re: 2013 Australian Federal election

I am not voting for the lesser of the two devils. Voting is an illustion which allows the voters to envisage that they have rights to choose. Thus, it is compulsory to vote.

 

[Lolsmith]

Re: 2013 Australian Federal election

I am not voting for the lesser of the two devils. Voting is an illustion which allows the voters to envisage that they have rights to choose. Thus, it is compulsory to vote.

That does not how a logical conclusion make

 

[Sathius005]

Budget surplus deferred by Abbott until a decade later (2023).
Source: AFR.
A Coalition government could take up to three times as long as Labor to return the budget to surplus under a budget recovery plan outlined by Tony Abbott, as he seeks to make room for spending promises if he wins government.

 

[Rafy]

Some bookies are now offering 1.01 odds on a Coalition win.

 

[Absolutezero]

Please don't tell me that's a real Tele cover. Fucking hell...

 

[Rafy]

Please don't tell me that's a real Tele cover. Fucking hell...

It's real.

 

[Absolutezero]

I mean, it doesn't surprise me, but... seriously, come on. Political opinions aside, that's ridiculous.

 

[Rafy]

It's editorial content. http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/ne...s-prime-minister/story-fni0cwl5-1226708324343

 

[Absolutezero]

I know, but it's also on the front page.

 

[brent012]

"Staff writers" - I like how whoever wrote that couldn't even put their name on it.