Australian economy completely avoids recession (1 Viewer)

[Planck]

Weak analogy.

Theism and atheism are both ultimately dependent on individual beliefs and thus cannot be conclusively proven or disproven in all cases. However, economics is by and large founded in factual statistics. The only difference is neoliberal ideologues like you who continue to be misled by, as ComingupforAir put it, "fatuous shit" that misinterprets statistical fact.

I'm not a neoliberal. Saying that implies I support the current financial system, central banks and money mechanism. It's wonderful to make the analysis of how we interpret the situation given how dire and confusing and conflated it is. Incredibly high taxation rates, subsidies here and there, propping up inefficient industries, misallocation of resources both capital and investment, etc.

The Austrian school hinges on one main point and that is that inflation destroys nations. Inflation is caused by a debasement and a devaluing of the currency, which is caused when a government gains control of a currency.

You can't print prosperity, as history has showed us time and time again.

You demonstrate a classic case of the confirmation bias: you select only the (limited) evidence that supports your point of view. However, I would suggest you look at economic data slightly more holistically. As Air said, most of what you purport to be debate is actually conclusive fact.

Yeah, it turns out the Austrian school has predicted every major crash since the Great Depression.

It's ludicrous to call it conclusive fact when the data is massaged and managed on its own terms. Of course a recession will end (if based on GDP) if you quite literally turn on a printing press and give everyone heaps of money that they go out and spend.

The problem is that you cause an unsustainable shock to the economy, which means there is a massive misallocation of resources due to the free moneyz.

Depressions and Recessions are the reset button on an economy. They're hit by people realising their money or capital is worthless.

If you want to do a Keynes and claim that savings and investments are two discrete pools of money, then do that.

Look at the actual levels of inflation, look at how our currency is devalued and how that affects the poorest of us. The scariest part is that you'll realise nothing has changed. We've had this big shock and yet... nothing has changed at all. The crash that was caused by unsustainable financial processes has been purported to have been solved... by unsustainable financial processes.

Isn't that just slightly worrying?

 

[Planck]

Economists wish they dealt in facts (*insert physics envy*).

Shermer posits that Economics is the most difficult of the sciences due to the myriad factors and the lack of actual quantifiable data.

You're absolutely right, though, they do not deal in facts. They do not even deal in theories in the scientific sense of the word.

 

[Iron]

witchcraft

 

[Planck]

Again to those who think Hoover was a groovy free markets dude, I present Hoover... on Hoover

we might have done nothing. That would have been utter ruin. Instead we met the situation with proposals to private business and to Congress of the most gigantic program of economic defense and counterattack ever evolved in the history of the Republic. We put it into action. . . . No government in Washington has hitherto considered that it held so broad a responsibility for lead- ership in such times. . . . For the first time in the history of depression, dividends, profits, and the cost of living, have been reduced before wages have suffered. . . . They were maintained until the cost of living had decreased and the profits had practically vanished. They are now the highest real wages in the world.
Creating new jobs and giving to the whole system a new breath of life; nothing has ever been devised in our history which has done more for . . . “the common run of men and women.” Some of the reactionary econo- mists urged that we should allow the liquidation to take its course until we had found bottom. . . . We deter- mined that we would not follow the advice of the bitter- end liquidationists and see the whole body of debtors of the United States brought to bankruptcy and the savings of our people brought to destruction.

William Starr Myers and Walter H. Newton, The Hoover Administration

 

[Garygaz]

Again to those who think Hoover was a groovy free markets dude, I present Hoover... on Hoover



William Starr Myers and Walter H. Newton, The Hoover Administration

So wait, I'm not sure if I'm reading this right, but you're going against what about 95% of the world's leading economists think and are stating that Hoover was doing the RIGHT thing during the GD?

 

[ComingUpForAir]

You'd call Nobel prize winning Economist Friedrich Von Hayek a simpleton? Murray Rothbard? Walter Block?

Shows how little you know.



Look up the definition of fatuous. I'm sorry but I won't debate against a straw man presented by someone who doesn't understand it. The fact of the matter is all of these people are schooled in keynsian concepts, it's just that these concepts are so distanced from the reality of the situation as to compromise their own integrity. Otherwise how do governments collapse?



Yet you can't explain the mechanism of how inflation works (Uuuh Sticky wages or uhh ummm uhhh), why effective demand is a ludicrous concept, and why Keynes said it would be better to pay individuals to dig holes and fill them in again.

All of this leads to malinvestment and disrupts the natural flow of the market.



Being called a moron with a grip on the english language almost as tenuous as his grip on reality? .

You strike me as the type of person who has never read, or bothered to comprehend the arguments not only against your opinion, but the one's actually in favor of it ...
Again I think the likely reason is that they demand intellegence and rigor that go beyond watching 2 mintue 'audit the fed' ron paul videos.
It's just sad that you think there is this grand 'debate' against Austrians, most economists, myself included, agree and are sympathetic with many of their conclusions, but they fail to develop formal models of the market process, it is not possible to assess claims concerning the efficiency of that process, and secondly in the absence of such modeling, it is not possible to adress the central issues of concern here, the mix and design of public and private activities..
But its statements like 'natural flow of the market' that really start to raise the alarm bells, and again, nothing your say is new or intelligent, much like your embarrasing attempts to make witty statments.
Basically you should just stick to correcting my spelling mistakes..something the blank-minds seem to relish

 

[justanotherposter]

most economists, myself included, agree and are sympathetic with many of their conclusions

I lol'd when you referred to yourself as an economist.
Awesome that you ignored the arguments re: the creation of unsustainable industries, inflation+devaluation of the dollar etc. I'm sure you ignored a whole bunch of other shit whilst you were composing that crap but you could've atleast TRIED to incorporate some content.

Just sayin'

 

[murphyad]

Awesome that you ignored the arguments re: the creation of unsustainable industries, inflation+devaluation of the dollar etc.

What do you mean 'etc'?

Coz I didn't notice any others.

Unless you mean the lassiez-faire rambling, which wasn't really argumentative in the scientific sense.

 

[Uncle]

optimism taken too far

 

[Freedom_]

It should be emphasized that the Keynesian theory did not win out by carefully debating and refuting the Austrian position; on the contrary, as often happens in the history of social science, Keynesianism simply became the new fashion, and the Austrian theory was not refuted but only ignored and forgotten.

The Austrian prescription for a depression is diametric opposite of the Keynesian: it is for the government to keep absolute hands off the economy, and to confine itself to stopping its own inflation, and to cutting its own budget.

It should be clear that the Austrian analysis of the business cycle meshes handsomely with the libertarian outlook toward government and a free economy. Since the State would always like to inflate and to interfere in the economy, a libertarian prescription would stress the importance of absolute separation of money and banking from the State. This would involve, at the very least, the abolition of the Federal Reserve System and the return to a commodity money (e.g., gold or silver) so that the money unit would once again be a unit of weight of a market-produced commodity rather than the name of a piece of paper printed by the State’s counterfeiting apparatus.

 

[KFunk]

It should be clear that the Austrian analysis of the business cycle meshes handsomely with the libertarian outlook toward government and a free economy.

Heh, case in point. The dominant economics tends to be that which legitimizes political/power structures, not that which best fits the facts or describes reality (of course, I say this while lacking an adequate metatheory with which to judge which economic theory is 'the best').

 

[boredusb]

OKay guys, Australia never 'avoiced' the recession, Rudd was not the hero

We did not 'avoid' a recession. Recessions are inevitable by their very nature, the longer you delay them the worse they get. Recessions are a response to previous loose monetary policies at the central bank. They are healthy.

You can't compare Australia to the rest of the world because before the GFC conditions were different. Other countries had low rates whereas Australia had high interest rates. Australia did not 'avoid' a recession because we never had a boom (easy credit from the central bank).

Busts can only happen in you have a boom. The best you to avoid both is to stop the central bank interfering with the money supply.

We can go through the GFC like a bandaid. rip it off quickly, it might hurt a bit but it fades soon. Rip it off slowly, it hurts more and the agony is prolonged.

See the low interest rates as being the alcohol and the recession as the hangover. Now you see why avoiding a recession with more cheap money is bad.

 

[murphyad]

Re: OKay guys, Australia never 'avoiced' the recession, Rudd was not the hero

Your dictation of opinionated economic claptrap has no credence whatsoever without objective proof.

See this thread for a proper discussion:

http://community.boredofstudies.org...lian-economy-completely-avoids-recession.html

 

[astroe]

Re: OKay guys, Australia never 'avoiced' the recession, Rudd was not the hero

I don't think we "avoiced" a recession either.
But that's just me.

 

[jb_nc]

Re: OKay guys, Australia never 'avoiced' the recession, Rudd was not the hero

we did not 'avoid' a recession. Recessions are inevitable by their very nature, the longer you delay them the worse they get. Recessions are a response to previous loose monetary policies at the central bank. They are healthy.

You can't compare australia to the rest of the world because before the gfc conditions were different. Other countries had low rates whereas australia had high interest rates. Australia did not 'avoid' a recession because we never had a boom (easy credit from the central bank).

Busts can only happen in you have a boom. The best you to avoid both is to stop the central bank interfering with the money supply.

We can go through the gfc like a bandaid. Rip it off quickly, it might hurt a bit but it fades soon. Rip it off slowly, it hurts more and the agony is prolonged.

See the low interest rates as being the alcohol and the recession as the hangover. Now you see why avoiding a recession with more cheap money is bad.

year 12 economics knowledge. Love it.

 

[ad infinitum]

Re: OKay guys, Australia never 'avoiced' the recession, Rudd was not the hero

We did not 'avoid' a recession. Recessions are inevitable by their very nature, the longer you delay them the worse they get. Recessions are a response to previous loose monetary policies at the central bank. They are healthy.

You can't compare Australia to the rest of the world because before the GFC conditions were different. Other countries had low rates whereas Australia had high interest rates. Australia did not 'avoid' a recession because we never had a boom (easy credit from the central bank).

Busts can only happen in you have a boom. The best you to avoid both is to stop the central bank interfering with the money supply.

We can go through the GFC like a bandaid. rip it off quickly, it might hurt a bit but it fades soon. Rip it off slowly, it hurts more and the agony is prolonged.

See the low interest rates as being the alcohol and the recession as the hangover. Now you see why avoiding a recession with more cheap money is bad.

First off, are you suggesting Australia is(or was) in recession or not..?
Do you also realise that when banks stop lending money..the 'money supply' decreases?
But I do agree that Alan Greenspan, who was chairman of the US central bank, got things very wrong.
But your logic is rather incoherant, it suggests Australia should be in a boom right now..because the RBA has slashed interest rates..but growth has fallen drastically..
obviously the growth we had and slump we face is due to the strength of our trading partners (and other things)..which suggests that Australia's 'boom and 'bust' cycle is not merely determined by the RBA.

 

[S.H.O.D.A.N.]

Re: OKay guys, Australia never 'avoiced' the recession, Rudd was not the hero

We did not 'avoid' a recession. Recessions are inevitable by their very nature, the longer you delay them the worse they get. Recessions are a response to previous loose monetary policies at the central bank. They are healthy.

You can't compare Australia to the rest of the world because before the GFC conditions were different. Other countries had low rates whereas Australia had high interest rates. Australia did not 'avoid' a recession because we never had a boom (easy credit from the central bank).

Busts can only happen in you have a boom. The best you to avoid both is to stop the central bank interfering with the money supply.

We can go through the GFC like a bandaid. rip it off quickly, it might hurt a bit but it fades soon. Rip it off slowly, it hurts more and the agony is prolonged.

See the low interest rates as being the alcohol and the recession as the hangover. Now you see why avoiding a recession with more cheap money is bad.

How is year 11 treating you? jb_nc seems to suggest you might have even made it to year 12! Wow. Good for you, son.

 

[John Galt]

It should be emphasized that the Keynesian theory did not win out by carefully debating and refuting the Austrian position; on the contrary, as often happens in the history of social science, Keynesianism simply became the new fashion, and the Austrian theory was not refuted but only ignored and forgotten.

Exactly, and this Keynesian dominance has remained ever since, despite it repeatedly being the cause of monstrous inefficiency and extensive recessions in this period.

Selectively removing certain trade barriers and cutting government spending in the 1980's in response to stagflation didn't mean a global transition to anything resembling free market conditions. What our brilliant government as well as many pitiful public servant economists claim was a failure of liberal/neoclassical/austrian economics actually represented merely modified Keynesianism. Most importantly, it was the prevailing government influences that made the greatest contribution to the recession, creating the conditions for the hand-picked privatised industries to fail.

 

[John Galt]

Re: OKay guys, Australia never 'avoiced' the recession, Rudd was not the hero

Oh cool, so let's leave everything to free market forces. kk.

Going to bother with an argument?

The alternative is oppression through legitimised violence. Free market forces are universally superior to this.

 

[S.H.O.D.A.N.]

Re: OKay guys, Australia never 'avoiced' the recession, Rudd was not the hero

Going to bother with an argument?

The alternative is oppression through legitimised violence. Free market forces are universally superior to this.

All hail the invisible hand of the free market. It solves world poverty. It will get rid of nuclear weapons. It will even tie your shoe laces!