Coronavirus/Covid-19 Discussion Thread (5 Viewers)

[Trebla]

Students in Germany are doing their final exams now at school, with the obvious hygiene and distancing precautions.

So it shouldn’t be surprising similiar measures will happen here.

 

[Drdusk]

Kind of unbelievable. They are demanding their gun rights and a Trump is publicly encouraging the protests...

I actually like trump but sometimes he really does say stupid stuff.

 

[OOnikki]

Lmao, I'm lowkey stressed out even though I'm in year 11 because some of my teachers can't even teach through online and some literally don't even reply to me uhghh.

 

[Deadinside]

Lmao, I'm lowkey stressed out even though I'm in year 11 because some of my teachers can't even teach through online and some literally don't even reply to me uhghh.

lol Same

 

[Trebla]

Watching the movie Contagion on tv. Quite interesting seeing the comparisons...

 

[Potato Sticks]

I actually like trump but sometimes he really does say stupid stuff.

Yeah I think some of Trump’s goals and vision are in the right place.

Unfortunately, he can’t stop himself from saying whatever he want, and in the process does some damage.

Like today, claiming that injecting sanitizer and introducing light to lungs might cure the Coronavirus. This sounds like just a joke, but is unfortunately actually very dangerous, as there will be some American that decides to inject sanitizer.

 

[Drdusk]

Unfortunately, he can’t stop himself from saying whatever he want, and in the process does some damage.

Yep, unfortunately no President is perfect. You win some you lose some I guess. However I don't mind when he bashes CNN on fake news and other people that deserve it.

 

[cosmo 2]

i protest my cock

 

[Drdusk]

Like today, claiming that injecting sanitizer and introducing light to lungs might cure the Coronavirus. This sounds like just a joke, but is unfortunately actually very dangerous, as there will be some American that decides to inject sanitizer.

I actually followed up on this because I couldn't believe what I was reading.

Again it's fake news. It's the media twisting words as usual. Trump never said to inject sanitizer, it is taken totally out of context. Watch the full conference thing. The media really is a piece of shit.

 

[Trebla]

I actually followed up on this because I couldn't believe what I was reading.

Again it's fake news. It's the media twisting words as usual. Trump never said to inject sanitizer, it is taken totally out of context. Watch the full conference thing. The media really is a piece of shit.

I wouldn’t call that “fake news” tbh because what he said wasn’t exactly made up by the media (especially compared to some of the false things he asserts), but rather could be interpreted in a certain way.

He was basically floating the idea in the context of a (somewhat cringeworthy) thought bubble. That was made pretty clear in the reports I came across at least. Maybe there’s a handful of articles that don’t make that clear?

However, that doesn’t change how hilariously silly and meme-able that was. It also doesn’t change how dangerous it is for him to speculate like that in public, especially after the hydroxychloroquine incident. There’s a reason why politicians typically say “I’m not going to speculate” to the media lol.

 

[Trebla]

The US is about to hit 1 million confirmed cases. The number of confirmed deaths in the past month for the US is pretty shocking. It’s higher than an entire year’s worth of their motor vehicle fatalities and is about to exceed a year’s worth of their (upper bound estimate) influenza fatalities as well. It’s also likely to exceed the 60,000 estimated by one of their models.

If you look at their epidemic curve the daily number of confirmed cases has remained relatively constant and hasn’t really come down much from the peak at all. Yet they want to relax restrictions pretty soon.

In contrast, here in Australia we’re still waiting for relaxed restrictions when we’re well and truly past the peak and clearly at the tail end of the curve...

 

[Potato Sticks]

The US is about to hit 1 million confirmed cases. The number of confirmed deaths in the past month for the US is pretty shocking. It’s higher than an entire year’s worth of their motor vehicle fatalities and is about to exceed a year’s worth of their (upper bound estimate) influenza fatalities as well. It’s also likely to exceed the 60,000 estimated by one of their models.

If you look at their epidemic curve the daily number of confirmed cases has remained relatively constant and hasn’t really come down much from the peak at all. Yet they want to relax restrictions pretty soon.

In contrast, here in Australia we’re still waiting for relaxed restrictions when we’re well and truly past the peak and clearly at the tail end of the curve...

Most countries only slightly past their peak are looking at relaxation. One would expect that the cases rise dramatically once they are relaxed. Herd immunity might end up not working due to short immunity duration. Overzealous actions from the majority of countries is not justification for us to rush too quick.

We are at the end of the 1st wave of an unknown number of waves of infection. Cases in NSW are stable around 10 a day now. Any relaxation that would likely increase, potentially substantially. The point of keeping it low before releasing is you have time to clamp down before it goes out of control. If America releases now, they won’t notice the damage until there’s already 10s of millions of cases. Australia might be able to relockdown with only 1000 or so more cases.

Australia is taking the smart wait and watch approach. Obviously at some point we will start taking risks with relaxations, and if the infections increase, then we know we have to wait it out for a vaccine on semi-lockdown (probably only around 6-10 months given faster than expected progress now).

 

[Potato Sticks]

Honestly, I believe America is somewhat past the peak, due to their poor testing regime. However, it is not well past, let alone enough to justify relaxation.

 

[Time&moretime]

Trump is an interesting character who was elected during a time when the American people basically had 'enough'. Recalling an American who commented during Trump's election bid, 'the rest of the world couldn't comprehend how angry we Americans are'. One of the reasons why Hillary couldn't cut through. Trump's base will continue to forgive him for his comments, reminding themselves that hey, its stress, he's taken out of context or maybe didn't articulate himself well enough, feeling overwhelmed. The others like Nancy P aren't going to let this pass. America is really complicated. Their culture is rooted on the idea of Meritocracy which doesn't always work. Some people work very hard but they don't necessarily get rewarded. Are they lesser of a person? Absolutely not. This sentiment is not always shared over there. Its basically survival of the fittest.

 

[Time&moretime]

Premier accuses teachers' union of wanting kids home indefinitely.
Premier Gladys Berejiklian has accused the NSW Teachers Federation of wanting to keep children home from school indefinitely... Sourced from the Syd Morning Herald Jordan Baker 23 April 2020.

This is so depressing. Students want to return to schools and teachers want to stay home. This partially explains the failing education system.

 

[Potato Sticks]

Schools should not be reopened until either clear evidence on the long term impact and transmissibility of Covid on children is found or until cafes, restaurants, bars and the like are at least partially reopened (or at least children’s venues such as indoor playgrounds, etc.).

They obviously can choose to force teachers to return to school, but I am aware that this will result in many teachers choosing to deliver education of a quality no different than that experienced than those learning at home, to incentivise students to stay home. This is not good for anyone.

 

[Trebla]

The staged approach in NSW makes sense to me, though it probably should be transitioned faster for Year 12 students. It gives teachers and students time to get comfortable going back to face-to-face teaching. However, private schools can do their own thing.

VIC on the other hand is doing all of Term 2 at home.

This is a classic case of differences in personal risk appetite. The evidence points to a very low risk of transmission in schools, but it seems that risk isn’t low enough for some people.

 

[Potato Sticks]

The staged approach in NSW makes sense to me, though it probably should be transitioned faster for Year 12 students. It gives teachers and students time to get comfortable going back to face-to-face teaching. However, private schools can do their own thing.

VIC on the other hand is doing all of Term 2 at home.

This is a classic case of differences in personal risk appetite. The evidence points to a very low risk of transmission in schools, but it seems that risk isn’t low enough for some people.

The risk is actually likely comparatively the highest in year 12 students as they are pretty much young adults, compared to lower grades. If sending year 12s back faster can be justified, then we might as well send everyone back faster since the whole school will be back eventually (or alternatively, keep only year 12s in school for the time being)

The main problem is we don’t have much data on transmission within schools, asymptomatic or symptomatic. If there turns out to be widespread asymptomatic transmission and long term organ damage (e.g impaired lung function), that has to be a risk then that one has to accept, even if small, when reopening schools. Personally given the multi-organ damage caused by Coronavirus in adults, I don’t think the possibility is even that remote, especially with atypical symptoms found increasingly within children such as toxic shock syndrome.

Reference:

UK doctors reveal rise in kids with severe coronavirus-related condition

Doctors in Britain’s National Health Service have been sent an urgent alert warning of a rise in children admitted to intensive care with a coronavirus-related condition.

www.news.com.au

On the other hand, the short term risk is probably very low right now, but considering logistical issues we should look at whether schools will eventually shut again because of a broader second wave in the community. The idea behind delaying school reopenings is so we remove the risk and disturbance of shutting schools down again down the road. The situation of subsequent waves will be quite clear by the start of term 3.

 

[Trebla]

The main rationale for wanting it faster for Year 12s is because the education risk from home learning vs face-to-face learning is far greater than any other year. Given the current state of low community transmission in general, the difference in health risk across the age groups in schools is perhaps less significant. Hence, the education risk should be a larger consideration.

I’m not sure I quite follow the rationale that not having to shut schools again come a second wave is a reason to keep them closed for longer. It’s far too conservative in my opinion and even then you cannot predict when (or if) a second wave will come. It may even come when term 3 begins, at peak flu season.

In the current environment, the longer you close schools the more you trade off the educational benefit (of a classroom) for a very marginal health benefit. Having classroom learning as the baseline but preparing a good back up plan for online learning, in case a second wave hits, seems appropriate for the risk in this situation. I just think it’s far too risk averse to definitively trade off the quality of education with what is effectively a small probability gamble on a second wave of infections.

I think the ideal would be to have an ongoing hybrid face-to-face and online learning model on alternating weeks or something like that (for high school students). Unfortunately, that is just not practical because the current infrastructure was never set up for that.

 

[Potato Sticks]

The main rationale for wanting it faster for Year 12s is because the education risk from home learning vs face-to-face learning is far greater than any other year. Given the current state of low community transmission in general, the difference in health risk across the age groups in schools is perhaps less significant. Hence, the education risk should be a larger consideration.

I’m not sure I quite follow the rationale that not having to shut schools again come a second wave is a reason to keep them closed for longer. It’s far too conservative in my opinion and even then you cannot predict when (or if) a second wave will come. It may even come when term 3 begins, at peak flu season.

In the current environment, the longer you close schools the more you trade off the educational benefit (of a classroom) for a very marginal health benefit. Having classroom learning as the baseline but preparing a good back up plan for online learning, in case a second wave hits, seems appropriate for the risk in this situation. I just think it’s far too risk averse to definitively trade off the quality of education with what is effectively a small probability gamble on a second wave of infections.

I think the ideal would be to have an ongoing hybrid face-to-face and online learning model on alternating weeks or something like that (for high school students). Unfortunately, that is just not practical because the current infrastructure was never set up for that.

As you noted, the differing approaches probably does depend on the degree of risk acceptance and the individuals assessment of the probability of further waves of infection.

Currently, we are seeing the easing of restrictions without having eliminated the virus. My position is that this is highly likely (>80%) to result in a resurgence of the virus, coupled by dropping temperatures with the coming winter, and that such a resurgence is likely to occur 2-4 weeks after the restrictions are significantly relaxed (probably May 11). This would put the start of the second wave around June, i.e the later part of term 2. Further to this point, if such resurgence occurs, school will be forced to reclose end of term 2, term 3 and 4. If the governments are persistent, they can probably hold out closing schools till term 3 but by then it will be extremely difficult to justify in the case of a second wave.

Overall, the current governments strategy would return to school approximately for 3-5 weeks in the case of the second wave. Considering that the return is only one day a week, the benefit is net three to five days whilst creating widespread disruption. Even with a full return to school, the benefit is only 5 weeks whilst accompanied with significant health risks towards the end of that period.