I was actually thinking the exact same thing, so I briefly read the 2017-19 post-exam discussions before providing these estimates. What you say is true to some extent, but there is a definitely a difference between this and past years among the perception on this site and elsewhere.I had a chat to my tutor last night and he said this exact discussion happens every year for 4u.
He has read the exam and says it's likely high 70s cutoff.
Apparently everyone always thinks it's easy lol
[Edit: Perhaps the perception that the exams are always easy is due to the fact that the exams did in fact get easier in the past 10-20 years. But there is probably a psychological component, as you note.]
I don't want to make you feel disappointed though, and I'm not saying that it will definitely be 83, when there is a very real chance that a 79 (maybe 78) will actually align to a 90. I just didn't think it was the most likely outcome, but that it was certainly possible on a good day, and the 79 was acknowledged as a possibility on my original graph.
But I suppose the best thing to say now is just good luck for today's exam! Let's do well
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