The 2024 U.S. election thread 🇺🇸 🦅 (12 Viewers)

[spiderfan44]

volatility != likely to go down though, the expected value would be a very tiny slight increase afterwards, although obviously that’s a mean of more extreme cases

yea thats what i mean. i think itll be down maybe 1% on the sp500 for a week or so and then go back up

 

[Socialism]

seems like there's plenty of smart people here, can anyone explain to me how the stock market works (sorta)

so if the price goes down when lots of people are selling, and if people think lots of people are selling, can't that just cause a stock market crash?? like

people think there's gonna be a stock market crash -} sell out, quick -} stock market crashes

 

[Socialism]

this is like the stupidest thing ive ever said but i literally haven't the first clue

 

[carrotsss]

seems like there's plenty of smart people here, can anyone explain to me how the stock market works (sorta)

so if the price goes down when lots of people are selling, and if people think lots of people are selling, can't that just cause a stock market crash?? like

people think there's gonna be a stock market crash -} sell out, quick -} stock market crashes

people don't wait to sell, they just do, decreases in stock price happen extremely quickly

once the selling has already happened theres no point in selling your stock because the fall has already happened, you're basically just asking to sell low and buy high at that point

 

[HazzRat]

yea thats what i mean. i think itll be down maybe 1% on the sp500 for a week or so and then go back up

if you’re that certain place a put

 

[spiderfan44]

if you’re that certain place a put

not too certain, plus im just staying away from options trading in general atm

 

[enoilgam]

(Respectfully) why are we even discussing the US election? Should we be more concerned about David Crisafulli and the LNP’s victory in Qld? Should we be talking about Albanese and Dutton?

Abortion could be banned in Queensland by the end of the year after the conservative LNP won power last week.

no srsly i was kinda shocked when steven miles didn't win considering he's so popular amongst the youth

Queensland isnt banning abortion and Federally, Dutton has basically told the Liberal Party in no uncertain terms that its not happening and not on the agenda. The election in Queensland was much closer than expected because of abortion, the LNP should have won comfortably but the abortion issue made it a lot closer. If the Liberals even hint at moving on abortion they will lose votes.

Ive said it many times, Australia is not the US - importing US style politics here wont work. Winning Australian elections is all about capturing the centre, in the US, you need to first capture the base then pivot to the centre. In other words, an anti-abortion platform wont win votes, but it will 100% lose votes.

 

[tvskAXatar]

Queensland isnt banning abortion and Federally, Dutton has basically told the Liberal Party in no uncertain terms that its not happening and not on the agenda. The election in Queensland was much closer than expected because of abortion, the LNP should have won comfortably but the abortion issue made it a lot closer. If the Liberals even hint at moving on abortion they will lose votes.

Ive said it many times, Australia is not the US - importing US style politics here wont work. Winning Australian elections is all about capturing the centre, in the US, you need to first capture the base then pivot to the centre. In other words, an anti-abortion platform wont win votes, but it will 100% lose votes.

how can you be so certain that abortion won’t be banned in Queensland? Katter said he would introduce a repeal bill to parliament and the LNP is likely to allow a conscience vote on the issue, and 93% of LNP MPs are formally opposed to abortion. It will easily pass parliament and the laws will be repealed

 

[enoilgam]

how can you be so certain that abortion won’t be banned in Queensland? Katter said he would introduce a repeal bill to parliament and the LNP is likely to allow a conscience vote on the issue, and 93% of LNP MPs are formally opposed to abortion. It will easily pass parliament and the laws will be repealed

Crisafulli is a new Premier and that last thing he wants is his entire first year as Premier overshadowed by a bullshit issue that fringe people care about. Also, it is going to gift Labor an easy vote winner going into the next election. In all likelyhood, Crisafulli will make a deal with Katter for something more important to the latter (funding a road upgrade, sports centre etc). Katter likely knows this, he put the abortion issue infront of Crisafulli, knowing full well the Premier cant allow it to happen, so he can get what he really wants. Politics in action.

Think about it, you are a new Premier and you allow abortion to be banned - you will spend at least the next year wasting oxygen on a matter deeply unpopular with the public, whilst your main agenda (youth crime, cost of living etc) which is popular with the public gets drowned out. Then, you spend the next cycle trying to win over women who will paint you as some dystopian Handmaid's Tale figure. I predict an overpriced road in Katter's district somewhere in the near future.

 

[carrotsss]

Crisafulli is a new Premier and that last thing he wants is his entire first year as Premier overshadowed by a bullshit issue that fringe people care about.

calling abortion a fringe issue is wild, I personally know multiple people who have had abortions and who’s lives would’ve been pretty much ruined had they not had that option. it’s a very real issue for young people, there’s a reason that people get so motivated around it

 

[katiekms]

Crisafulli is a new Premier and that last thing he wants is his entire first year as Premier overshadowed by a bullshit issue that fringe people care about. Also, it is going to gift Labor an easy vote winner going into the next election. In all likelyhood, Crisafulli will make a deal with Katter for something more important to the latter (funding a road upgrade, sports centre etc). Katter likely knows this, he put the abortion issue infront of Crisafulli, knowing full well the Premier cant allow it to happen, so he can get what he really wants. Politics in action.

Think about it, you are a new Premier and you allow abortion to be banned - you will spend at least the next year wasting oxygen on a matter deeply unpopular with the public, whilst your main agenda (youth crime, cost of living etc) which is popular with the public gets drowned out. Then, you spend the next cycle trying to win over women who will paint you as some dystopian Handmaid's Tale figure. I predict an overpriced road in Katter's district somewhere in the near future.

well this is good to hear at least

 

[appleali]

whos gonna win the us election

 

[radagastthebrown]

Anybody else bored after finishing HSC and just watching US election?

 

[Solarised]

Anybody else bored after finishing HSC and just watching US election?

I haven't even finished hsc and I'm watching it lol

 

[spiderfan44]

very inconsiderate of the us government to schedule the election the day before two of my exams, trying to distract me smh

 

[Solarised]

Trump cookin rn

 

[SylviaB]

calling abortion a fringe issue is wild, I personally know multiple people who have had abortions and who’s lives would’ve been pretty much ruined had they not had that option. it’s a very real issue for young people, there’s a reason that people get so motivated around it

Very few people want it banned he means

 

[SylviaB]

x.com

x.com

 

[Solarised]

Not looking great for Kamala rn

 

[Trebla]

very inconsiderate of the us government to schedule the election the day before two of my exams, trying to distract me smh

Tbh if the race is as close as people say it is, there won’t be anything interesting to note until tomorrow. Early results are not that meaningful given every state counts votes in their own way/order and are population/timezone dependent etc. It’s not like our federal elections where it’s managed by one central independent body (i.e. the AEC).