Okay, let's say there's a 50% chance of a successful interview.
Bear in mind it's not a pass/fail interview. The pool's interview scores are standardised to a scale comparable to the pool's ATAR & UMAT ranges, then the three scores are added together for final ranking. Let's say 50% chance success means it's 50% likely you achieve a pool-average interview score and the ATAR/UMAT needed to get in with that
- UNSW/Monash : 99.3-.5 + 93-95%ile
- WSU : 97-98%ile (since ATAR doesn't count afterwards and interview counts more than UMAT)
- Adelaide : 99.6 + 96%ile (they give ATAR bonuses to many your "raw" ATAR is worth relatively less and offers ratio is like 1 in 5. I first didn't get in with 99.8/100%ile)
- JMP : even 150%ile UMAT won't give you 50% chance, since it's all on the interview an average interview score = zero chance
Edit: Adding a little explanation to make it clearer. Success ratio at UNSW/WSU is approx 1 in 3, JMP 1 in 4, Adelaide 1 in 5. A pool-average interview score only places you at the half mark, your ATAR/UMAT must help pull you up to the top 20-30% or failing that you aim for an impressive interview.
Or, 50% chance of getting in if the uni doesn't have an interview.
With no interview uncertainty you can almost see where 100% chance is based on previous years' cutoffs
UQ 99.0 + 91-92%ile, Flinders 99.85 + ~90%ile, Griffith 99.8 no UMAT.