Should there be an Aboriginal voice to parliament? (1 Viewer)

[notme123]

i swear yes is gonna win. i know the silent majority is very much a thing (no one has the balls to wear vote no shirts and put vote no posters on their house) but the randomness on the day will be high

 

[SylviaB]

i swear yes is gonna win. i know the silent majority is very much a thing (no one has the balls to wear vote no shirts and put vote no posters on their house) but the randomness on the day will be high

the polls would have to be catastrophically wrong

and i mean if the polls were showing a clear yes majority, no yes supporter would be doubting the polls, making appeals to 'randomness' a cope.

https://simonjackman.github.io/poll_averaging_voice_2023/poll_averaging.html

 

[notme123]

the polls would have to be catastrophically wrong

and i mean if the polls were showing a clear yes majority, no yes supporter would be doubting the polls, making appeals to 'randomness' a cope.

https://simonjackman.github.io/poll_averaging_voice_2023/poll_averaging.html

yes true but I don't really trust polls in the first place. im not even voting yes and im doubtful of them

 

[SylviaB]

yes true but I don't really trust polls in the first place. im not even voting yes and im doubtful of them

okay but it would be very weird if a huge swing in the polls towards no was completely divorced from any real world voting intention change. Either all pollsters have different and yet somehow equally flawed methodologies, even the ones that have shown much higher yes % than the other polls, or the change does represent a true swing but the true % yes started off even higher than thought (i.e. higher than 64%) and so they're still above 50%.

Not only would national polls need to be very wrong, at least 4 out of 6 of the state polls would need to be wrong too.

 

[cosmo 2]

no way yes wins

this is over as hard as the butt secks postal vote was

even that had less of an uphill hill to climb since this has to not only win a majority but a majority of all states

 

[enoilgam]

okay but it would be very weird if a huge swing in the polls towards no was completely divorced from any real world voting intention change. Either all pollsters have different and yet somehow equally flawed methodologies, even the ones that have shown much higher yes % than the other polls, or the change does represent a true swing but the true % yes started off even higher than thought (i.e. higher than 64%) and so they're still above 50%.

Not only would national polls need to be very wrong, at least 4 out of 6 of the state polls would need to be wrong too.

Agreed. I think Brexit, the 2019 Federal election and especially the Trump win have given people a distorted idea of poll accuracy. In all those cases, the polls weren't way off, they were within the margin of error and people werent looking at the right polling. With Trump for example, people focused on national polls which showed a Clinton win (which was correct, Clinton won the national popular vote). However, in terms of the electoral college (which determines US Presidential elections), Trump managed a narrow win which was largely within the margins of state-wide polls.

 

[notme123]

okie dokie i trust you guys. it would be surreal to see the reaction of a yes loss after seeing every institution endorse the yes campaign. all councils around me have flags and banners saying that the council votes yes

 

[cosmo 2]

makes ya really wonder wtf is wrong w albo

i reckon hes the type that gets some super excited vibe about doing something and no one can recommend him out of it or convince him otherwise

he just had to glide though sure thered be some rumblings about cost of living and immigration but he will never get any genuinely serious pushback politically esp on immigration bc the LNP is lockstep with ALP on it

so really if he had just done fuck all things would basically be fine for him, but he had to throw his hat into some ultra politically risky compromising thing that has seriously turned out to fuck him over

 

[SylviaB]

Yeah, I think he thought this would go through easily and would only piss off the people who already hate him the most. And once it went through, even though it would do jack shit constructive stuff, it would be a massive legacy building thing that would get praised for decades to come (though he probably genuinely thought it would help abos)

there is also the possibility that he expected it might struggle to pass, but that it not passing wouldn't matter too much because being seen to be trying to do the right thing is better than any negative consequences (in his mind)

 

[SylviaB]

oh man, as if this article weren't delusional enough already

Young Australians could turn the tide to make the voice a reality | Barrie Cassidy

History shows us referendums are tough. But the more progressive, issues-based under-40s might just make this one the groundbreaker

www.theguardian.com

just look at the comments lmao

 

[cosmo 2]

nothing will save this thing lol

theyre reaching to try to get the numbers up in their heads any way they can, maybe it can win if therres a few voters here a few voters there

relying on the most unreliable demographic of all plus no one cares about this thing anyway

turns out its nowhere near as memetically effective as the ssm vote thing was

 

[SylviaB]

 

[mmmmmmmmaaaaaaa]

okie dokie i trust you guys. it would be surreal to see the reaction of a yes loss after seeing every institution endorse the yes campaign. all councils around me have flags and banners saying that the council votes yes

I've been seeing it more equal now, both for vote no and vote yes

 

[scaryshark09]

okie dokie i trust you guys. it would be surreal to see the reaction of a yes loss after seeing every institution endorse the yes campaign. all councils around me have flags and banners saying that the council votes yes

take a photo of all them, to use against them at a later date in the 1% chance that it actually passes, and then it would all go to ruins

 

[notme123]

I've been seeing it more equal now, both for vote no and vote yes

wait so youve seen publci endorsements of no?

 

[notme123]

when i mean endorsement im not talking about figureheads coming out saying theyre voting no. im talking people putting signs and flags up, councils promoting it.

 

[cosmo 2]

ive never seen anything promoting either tbh

at all

no one seems to care eitherway

 

[SylviaB]

im sure its bad in melbourne

 

[cosmo 2]

https://www.theguardian.com/austral...iament-referendum-polls-voters-western-sydney

this is why the voice is losing

no other reason IMO

ppl are too low iq

dont get me wrong i dont think the voice is a good idea

but ppl genuinely dont understand it anyway and thats why its not popular and no one cares

i reckon iq 95 is the cut off to intuitively grasp it let alone produce a theoretical framework in your mind how it may or may not work

gay marriage was super simple, dick in ass vs dick in vagina

very simple non-abstract physical concept that you can convince people are equivalent

thats why it won

but this is way more abstract legal shit requires higher level thought processes to put together a model of what it is

then as a second layer, you have to understand why it might actually work

so even amongst ppl who are high iq enough to understand the voice as a model, a lot of them simply wont vote for it bc theyre skeptical itll help at all or have some other issue maybe brought up by no campaign

so it has to go through two clearances to get people to really support it, first needs ppl to actually be smart enough to grasp it as an abstract concept, then then within that group then you need the people who understand it, and think itll work

so no way could it ever have gotten a majority i should have realised this before

 

[carrotsss]

https://www.theguardian.com/austral...iament-referendum-polls-voters-western-sydney

this is why the voice is losing

no other reason IMO

ppl are too low iq

dont get me wrong i dont think the voice is a good idea

but ppl genuinely dont understand it anyway and thats why its not popular and no one cares

i reckon iq 95 is the cut off to intuitively grasp it let alone produce a theoretical framework in your mind how it may or may not work

gay marriage was super simple, dick in ass vs dick in vagina

very simple non-abstract physical concept that you can convince people are equivalent

thats why it won

but this is way more abstract legal shit requires higher level thought processes to put together a model of what it is

then as a second layer, you have to understand why it might actually work

so even amongst ppl who are high iq enough to understand the voice as a model, a lot of them simply wont vote for it bc theyre skeptical itll help at all or have some other issue maybe brought up by no campaign

so it has to go through two clearances to get people to really support it, first needs ppl to actually be smart enough to grasp it as an abstract concept, then then within that group then you need the people who understand it, and think itll work

so no way could it ever have gotten a majority i should have realised this before

yeah pretty much, there’s no chance of it passing