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Re: First Presidential Debate i would argue that it is a bit about maturity. part of what we consider the maturation of a western person is getting a job, having a family, getting a mortgage, having retirement savings, so on and so forth. maturity, therefore, goes hand in hand with...

Re: First Presidential Debate hey look at this, people are stupid therefore, ________________________

Re: First Presidential Debate yeah ive read about the markets being manipulated. there is, of course, the potential for this to occur in any market. however i don't think it's a very significant issue. given that there are numerous (even dozens) of prediction markets, and not-for-profits like...

Re: First Presidential Debate opinion polls have a margin of error. prediction markets don't. obviously, the margin of error is less relevant if you have a series of polls. but on the day, or hours, before the election, the prediction markets would be more accurate than one poll due to there...

Re: First Presidential Debate eh, i was lazy with the citation, but there are a bunch of other papers and data [1] [2] [3] that suggest that historically, markets have generally been accurate. while we know so little about prediction markets, and even though we know they can be inefficient as...

Re: First Presidential Debate okay

Re: First Presidential Debate what are you talking about. why would the market on betfair be out of whack with any of the others that aren't for 'niche markets'? not to mention that, in fact, it isn't out of whack at all. i believe gambling on elections is illegal in the U.S. which is why...

Re: First Presidential Debate yes, that paper concerns seat shares in the UK general election. any market will be most accurate at predicting binary, qualitative results (i.e. a or b). when it comes to margins, seat shares (in the UK) or electoral college votes, markets will be far less...

Re: First Presidential Debate the markets have historically demonstrated an unparalleled prescience in picking the next president, and the money is still on obama by a big margin. that's where my money is.

Re: First Presidential Debate the economy

Re: First Presidential Debate yes, idiotic beliefs about the cause of the recession are very worrying indeed

Re: First Presidential Debate i watched it, and looked at the transcript. it's not clear whether he's impersonating a republican or not when he said that. if he was, he didn't make it clear; if he wasn't, he's straight up lying, which is the cool thing to do right now.

Re: First Presidential Debate no. i'm referring to the emotional investment people have in the presidential debates, and why people talk about 'winning' and 'losing' a debate. i believe the debates are about momentum, not the elections per se. the debates are a rare opportunity for candidates...

Re: First Presidential Debate the way i see it, this debate was about carrying on the momentum of the first presidential debate. the winner was who changed/preserved the momentum. ryan lost it completely, and biden turned obama's poor performance around. ryan's performance was poor, biden's...

Re: First Presidential Debate no he has just no charisma and is a poor debater. how many times did he say "look". that's a debating no no. and how many times did he say "heres the problem" in quick succession? it's okay to say it once if you're actually going to explicitly state what the...

Re: First Presidential Debate obama wins, romney wins, reptiles win

Re: First Presidential Debate yeah and ron paul wants to overturn roe vs wade. ron paul is your quintessential activist big-government president. gary johnson just says fuck it, cowabunga dude and slithers off into the sunset, leaving a trail of glittery liberty slime vote gary johnson

Re: First Presidential Debate either way, the jews win

Re: First Presidential Debate What was your opinion of Romney before the debate? There is no doubt that he is an intelligent, accomplished, and utterly capable guy. He cut his teeth in a field that demands excellent skills in speech, persuasion, and negotiation. He was evidently well prepared...

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