Australian Politics (4 Viewers)

[Slidey]

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/pol.../story-e6frgczf-1225873743310?from=public_rss

Greens 16%
Labour 35%
Liberal 41%

Two party preferred: 51-49 to Labour.

Fuck yeah, Greens!

That's what happens when the two major parties race to the bottom on refugees.

 

[Slidey]

With a result like that the Greens would have 12 Senate seats and half a dozen lower house seats (Melbourne, Sydney, etc). Tanner would be well and truly gone.

In reality the Greens vote is more like 12% or so. Which is still pretty potent.

 

[murphyad]

With a result like that the Greens would have 12 Senate seats and half a dozen lower house seats (Melbourne, Sydney, etc). Tanner would be well and truly gone.

In reality the Greens vote is more like 12% or so. Which is still pretty potent.

You know I think I would actually prefer the Democrats to have had a share in that increase of voter support, though unfortunately they now appear to be consigned to the dustbin of Australian political history.

Imo the Democrats' primary intention was to straddle the Australian political centre in a quest to promote bipartisanship on important pieces of legislation. Meanwhile, the Greens are principled voters with a strongly pro-environmental agenda that sometimes obfuscates proceedings. I dare say that if we still had a Democrat presence in the Senate, the ETS bill may have passed.

That being said, it's a zero sum game for Australian third parties - there's only room for one. If the Democrats did make a comeback, all they would do is weaken the Greens to a point where neither would be powerful enough to claim the third party title.

 

[Existential]

Greens score highest support: Newspoll | The Australian

Greens 16%
Labour 35%
Liberal 41%

Two party preferred: 51-49 to Labour.

Fuck yeah, Greens!

That's what happens when the two major parties race to the bottom on refugees.

yeah Labor and Liberal both fail in that area.

do the Greens have a plan? im unaware of their position.

 

[Existential]

YouTube - Phoney Tony caught out.wmv

YouTube - 7.30 Report - Kevin Rudd gets angry with Kerry O'Brien

2 interviews of fail by two parties which are failing.

 

[Slidey]

You know I think I would actually prefer the Democrats to have had a share in that increase of voter support, though unfortunately they now appear to be consigned to the dustbin of Australian political history.

Imo the Democrats' primary intention was to straddle the Australian political centre in a quest to promote bipartisanship on important pieces of legislation. Meanwhile, the Greens are principled voters with a strongly pro-environmental agenda that sometimes obfuscates proceedings. I dare say that if we still had a Democrat presence in the Senate, the ETS bill may have passed.

That being said, it's a zero sum game for Australian third parties - there's only room for one. If the Democrats did make a comeback, all they would do is weaken the Greens to a point where neither would be powerful enough to claim the third party title.

Indeed, and I would have no issue voting for the Democrats if they were in the electoral position the Greens currently are. Alas...

 

[Lentern]

Oh fuck it I just wrote this great psephologist analysis of polls with some graphs from possum and everything and then it didn't post. Crux of it was
-There are some nice tables on Crikey by Possum whichI suggest show that had Turnbull won the leadership not Abbott the coalition might be in a winning position atm but as it stands they are sat to lose about six seats .
Newspoll Greenades – Pollytics

I also did a senate calculation which was very well explained (and proofread which is very rare for me) but now you just get my numbers which are:
34 Coalition, 33 Labor, 8 Greens and 1 Xenophon.

Finally I predicted a surprise swing to the Greens in Dennison whereby they overtake the coalition due to Duncan Kerr's popularity with green types and his imminent retirement.

 

[Slidey]

Oh fuck it I just wrote this great psephologist analysis of polls with some graphs from possum and everything and then it didn't post. Crux of it was
-There are some nice tables on Crikey by Possum whichI suggest show that had Turnbull won the leadership not Abbott the coalition might be in a winning position atm but as it stands they are sat to lose about six seats .
Newspoll Greenades – Pollytics

I also did a senate calculation which was very well explained (and proofread which is very rare for me) but now you just get my numbers which are:
34 Coalition, 33 Labor, 8 Greens and 1 Xenophon.

Finally I predicted a surprise swing to the Greens in Dennison whereby they overtake the coalition due to Duncan Kerr's popularity with green types and his imminent retirement.

Did you base that off the 16% figure or the rolling average?

 

[Lentern]

Did you base that off the 16% figure or the rolling average?

I ran with a 10.5 average, the 16% is a bit of an aberration and every outlet bar the Newspoll have overstated the greens vote in election years recently and I expect Newspoll to follow the suit of Morgan, Essential, Galaxy and Nielsen now they have added greens to the initial voting intentions question. I also tweaked it a bit state by state just going on feel, Tasmania for example we know will be significantly greater than Queensland. Nonetheless the only states that will be close are NSW, SA and Victoria. Victoria there is a ? mark about what becomes of Fieldings seat, I gave the benefit of doubt to the greens given Melbourne has a lot of trendy leftist types and high multiculturalism. SA because of the absence of Xenophon and NSW is just plain close but I'm banking on Lee Rhiannon having sufficient following to secure the senate spot for the greens.

Naturally as any of us amateurs do, I let Antony Green and Malcolm Mackeras do most of the grunt work and just swooped in to tweak the so called "marginal senate seats."

 

[Slidey]

I ran with a 10.5 average, the 16% is a bit of an aberration and every outlet bar the Newspoll have overstated the greens vote in election years recently and I expect Newspoll to follow the suit of Morgan, Essential, Galaxy and Nielsen now they have added greens to the initial voting intentions question. I also tweaked it a bit state by state just going on feel, Tasmania for example we know will be significantly greater than Queensland. Nonetheless the only states that will be close are NSW, SA and Victoria. Victoria there is a ? mark about what becomes of Fieldings seat, I gave the benefit of doubt to the greens given Melbourne has a lot of trendy leftist types and high multiculturalism. SA because of the absence of Xenophon and NSW is just plain close but I'm banking on Lee Rhiannon having sufficient following to secure the senate spot for the greens.

Naturally as any of us amateurs do, I let Antony Green and Malcolm Mackeras do most of the grunt work and just swooped in to tweak the so called "marginal senate seats."

Well, consider this:

3 Greens Senators retain their seat due to 6 year terms.

Then, with 10% vote, I can't see why the Greens wouldn't get a new Senator in every state, giving them 9 Senate seats total?

DD excluded.

 

[Slidey]

“Along the way to becoming a billionaire, Mr Palmer did a stint as an adjunct professor of business at Deakin University’s Faculty of Business and Law. He held this untenured, non-salaried position from 2002 to 2006. On the strength of this, Mr Palmer has taken to calling himself a professor. The Mineralogy corporate website calls him Professor Clive F Palmer. The fact is that Mr Palmer is not and never has been a professor. In Australia a professor is a person who holds a chair at a university. An adjunct professorship is a temporary and honorary post only. For a former adjunct professor to go around the business community calling himself a professor is a breach of academic protocol, but it is more than that—it is a symptom of the inflated sense of importance that Mr Palmer has acquired.” (Hansard, 18 March 2009 Page: 1889)

 

[Lentern]

Well, consider this:

3 Greens Senators retain their seat due to 6 year terms.

Then, with 10% vote, I can't see why the Greens wouldn't get a new Senator in every state, giving them 9 Senate seats total?

DD excluded.

Because the vote in QLD will be a fair bit below the national average. Ones presumes the presence of the nats and one nation has something to do with that, likewise Queenslander Rudd will get a small boost out of parochialism in QLD.

 

[Slidey]

Antony Green and others have been predicting the Greens will safely get a QLD senate seat for a while, though...

 

[Lentern]

Antony Green and others have been predicting the Greens will safely get a QLD senate seat for a while, though...

Others might be but Antony ain't.

Antony Green's Election Blog: Double Dissolution versus Half-Senate Election: Which would be better for Labor in the Senate?

Somewhat dated article I know but the maths still checks out and I haven't seen anything that suggests the greens will come close to the 14% quota in QLD. I think once in an article about a double dissolution he wrote something like "In a half senate election scenario the coalition would almost certainly lose their fourth senate seat to either the Greens or the ALP."

 

[Slidey]

The Greens don't need to achieve quota. They never have in the past. Labour preference flows would get them in.

 

[Lentern]

The Greens don't need to achieve quota. They never have in the past. Labour preference flows would get them in.

I meant in the final count not the first one.

 

[Slidey]

I meant in the final count not the first one.

Oh, well they'll definitely get that.

 

[Garygaz]

tbh i think the greens are far worse than labour and the liberals combined. can you imagine how fucked up our country would be if they were in charge.

i mean if you actually listen to parliamentary sessions sometimes some of their ideas just make you wanna facepalm so hard.

 

[Lentern]

Oh, well they'll definitely get that.

No they wont, that's the point. The ALP vote would have to absolutely collapse in QLD for the Greens to finish ahead in the final count for the final seat and the primary swing against the ALP is/will be well below the national average in QLD.

 

[Existential]

tbh i think the greens are far worse than labour and the liberals combined. can you imagine how fucked up our country would be if they were in charge.

i mean if you actually listen to parliamentary sessions sometimes some of their ideas just make you wanna facepalm so hard.

yeah im not so confident in the greens